Bandra bypoll: 42% turnout keeps everyone guessing

As per the tentative figures provided by the suburban Mumbai district collector, over 42% voters used their franchise in the Bandra (East) constituency bypoll for Maharashtra Assembly on Saturday, which is five scale point lower than the October 2014 Assembly polls.

While observers say bypolls usually witnesses a low turnout making predictions about the result little difficult. This indicates an indecisive electorate. Additionally, the diverse profile of the voters in the constituency and the voting pattern on Saturday makes things complex.

To make matter worse for both, AIMIM has fielded Rahbar Khan an ex-corporator who came third in the October assembly elections, polling more votes than the Congress. This is giving sleepless nights to Narayan Rane, who is seeking rehabilitation in the state politics and in his party. For the Shiv Sena, which has fielded ex-MLA Bala Sawant's widow Trupti Sawant, the bypoll is a prestige battle as party chief Uddhav Thackeray lives in the constituency.

The constituency is home to 2.65 lakh voters, including Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray. While Marathi speaking voters constitute over 50% of the electorate here, Muslims too have a significant presence with 30% voters belonging to the community. Other 20% include north Indians and others.

On Saturday, the plush and middle class localities like Kalanagar, Kherwadi and Government Colony registered modest voting while slum and Muslim dominated Behrampada, Dynaneshwar Nagar, Naupada and Bharat Nagar witnessed better turnout.

"Higher turnout from slums and minority concentrated areas usually helps Congress. Besides, Rane has got support of NCP and some RPI factions as well. However, AIMIM would also dent Congress's traditional vote bank as was obvious in the October polls when Rahbar Khan polled over 24,000 votes and came third while Congress slipped to fifth place," said an observer.

Days ahead of polls Rane managed to break-away local unit of AIMIM to his side. However, other analysts think that Shivsena which is fighting to retain the seat won by Bala Sawant in October and also save the prestige of Thackerays who stay here, has got more advantage this time.

"The absence of BJP and MNS candidates who were pitted in the October polls will add to Trupti Sawant's votes, widow of the ex-MLA Bala Sawant, who is mainly backing on sympathy votes," said an observer, pointing out to the fact that the BJP candidate Kirhsna Parkar had polled 25,791 votes and Bala Sawant got 41,388.