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Is Marwar region slipping away from Vasundhara Raje’s grasp?

In an emotional speech addressed to the people he sought their opinion about leaving party- and amid an affirmative chant from the crowd he announced his departure.

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Members drawn from different communities attend the rally at Pachpadra in Barmer on Saturday.
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After much speculations Manvendra Singh, BJP MLA from Sheo in Barmer and the son of stalwart Jaswant Singh, finally announced leaving BJP at a well-attended Swabhiman Rally organised at Pachpadra in Barmer on Saturday. In an emotional speech addressed to the people he sought their opinion about leaving party- and amid an affirmative chant from the crowd he announced his departure.

What is interesting is that Manvendra said that he has run out of patience and termed BJP as a mistake. Interestingly, while he flayed chief minister Vasundhara Raje for denying his father a ticket and the disregard he faced, he absolved prime minister Narendra Modi of all blame. This shows he is not willing to spoil relations with the central leadership.

Not just in terms of perception but Manvendra’s exit can also inflict electoral losses to the BJP in Rajasthan. It is likely to have an impact on as many as 40 seats in western Rajasthan falling in the Marwar region. Of the current 23 Rajput MLAs 14 are from western Rajasthan.

The Rajputs that make up as much as 18% of vote share in the region are upset and the way Manvendra has raised the issue of self-respect could cement their dissociation with the BJP. Western Rajasthan is dominated by Jats, Rajputs, Meghwals (SC) and Muslims. Manvendra’s rally was patronised by Rajputs, Meghwals (SC) and Muslims. All three are not traditional BJP voters but have partly supported BJP due to Jaswant Singh. With Manvendra moving away, this vote bank would entirely move away from the party.

Further, if in course of time, he were to join Congress, a consolidated Rajput, Meghwal, Muslim combination could be a deadly combination in favour of the Congress.  

More than numbers, Manvendra’s leaving is a loss of perception for BJP. Politics in the parched Thar region of Marwar runs on emotion and Manvendra has struck the right chord with when he says that his is a battle of Swabhiman (self-respect) for himself and his critically ill father. It has enabled him establish a connect with people across communities.

Sonaram Plans Kisaan Rally

To counter Manvendra Singh’s Swabhiman Rally at Pachpadra, sitting BJP MP from Barmer-Jaisalmer, Colonel Sonaram has planned a Kisaan Rally to showcase his political clout in the region. Sonaram, a Congress leader was given the ticket to contest the seat after he switched to the party at the last moment.

Chitra Singh May Fight Sheo

Sources said that Manvendra Singh could contest the general elections, while leaving his seat for his wife Chitra Singh. One of the strategies being talked about is that Manvendra could contest the parliamentary polls from the Barmer-Jaisalmer seat in 2019. His wife Chitra Singh could then contest Sheo constituency.

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