Assembly Elections 2018: BJP could not leverage its cadre fully in Rajasthan

BJP has suffered a defeat in Rajasthan, getting less than half the number of seats it won in 2013. While the electoral history had ordained that Congress would win, BJP had been posturing to rewrite history.

It wouldn’t be incorrect to say that the party that was all set to face a resounding defeat, came back in the fight to give Congress tough competition. The no holds barred offensive campaign and organisational strategy launched by BJP was very much on the lines of what it deployed in Uttar Pradesh, but it did not work out. Thereby, raising the question as to why did BJP lose Rajasthan?

The reasons can be classified into two categories - one related to the public and the second related to the party.

Public perception was against the BJP. Long drawn out farmers’ agitations and not generating jobs promised was a cause of much angst within the common people. This laced with anti-incumbency created an atmosphere that no amount of campaign could reverse.

The internal issues plaguing BJP were also aplenty - it had a rusty defunct organisation structure with a cadre that felt it had no stake in the government. This alienation resulted in a dedicated workforce not delivering. Further, an adverse environment and publicity by workers over the last two years could not be corrected. Efforts to spruce up the organisation by changing the president were too late and mirred in controversy and thereby ineffective.    

With a shaky organisation; Rajasthan half-heartedly followed the national president Amit Shah’s model for ticket distribution and decentralised campaign. The panna pramukh scheme (of one worker per 50 voters) and vistarak scheme did not get desired support of the organisation. This was main reason for them being less effective than envisaged.

Further contrary to Shah’s suggestions - and in disregard of surveys - most sitting MLAs and almost all ministers were given tickets. 

The results show ministers falling like nine pins. “What Amit Shah wanted was an organisation and a system that works, but the pulls and pushes within the party once again brought it to a position where elections became candidate centric,” said a BJP leader.  

BJP failed to understand and deal with the anger of Brahmins and Rajputs; both traditional voters of the BJP. The two communities one vocally and the other silently caused huge dent in the BJP vote base. Another example of BJP - the urban party - not being able to hold on to its kitty is reflected in the losses it faces in urban areas.

Faulty ticket distribution resulted in large number of rebels and there was no action plan to effectively deal with them. BJP adopted a wait and watch policy - hoping that rebels would cut into opposition votes - this was a miscalculation BJP lost many a seat to.

The campaign too left much to be desired; in most places RSS was not as proactive as it could have been. There were national leaders carpet bombing the state, but local connect was missing all through. The entire campaign put across a message that Rajasthan was secondary; 2019 was a priority and voters reacted accordingly. BJP entire campaign focused on development works done, but non involvement of local leadership and over dependence on bureaucracy served to create political alienation from local leadership and public.

BJP went horribly wrong on two factors that it thought would go in its favour - one banking on beneficiaries as vote banks and other the hard Hindutva plank. “Rajasthan is the land of Bhamashas; people who donate anonymously. Parading beneficiaries and expecting them to vote in return does not blend with the state psyche. Also Rajasthan’s Muslim is different from other states. The Hindutva strategy did not polarise Hindus, instead caused Muslim to stand behind Congress,” said a senior BJP leader.

It was also a situation of BJP Vs BJP all through the tenure. There was constant talk of strained relations between Narendra Modi and Raje. This never gave stability within the party. 

The sheer numbers that BJP won in 2014 too were a problem — it kept the government safe, but not getting share in power pie created resentment among elected representatives.

Controversy over ticket distribution had at one point harmed the prospects of Congress, but every mistake by BJP served to better Congress’s chances. It cashed on discontent of farmers’, unemployed, youth and raised issues of BJP not respecting mandate and not providing safety to women. While the BJP narrative failed, the one by Congress struck a chord with the public.  

But results need to be a word of caution for the BJP because 2019 is crucial for the party and the road to Delhi passes through Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh.

FACTORS THAT LED TO BJP’S DEFEAT

• The BJP failed to understand and deal with the anger of Brahmins and Rajputs; both traditional voters of the BJP. 
   
• The two communities, one vocally and the other silently, caused a huge dent in the BJP vote base. 
   
• The BJP, considered to be an urban party, suffered mainly because it wasn’t able to hold on to its kitty in these areas.