Will traditional monsoon forecasters get it right?

The rains may have brought a sigh of relief to the state. But before the rains made an appearance and officials were whispering about impending drought, traditional rain forecasters DNA talked to dismissed the idea.

Back then they had in fact predicted that rainfall activity may extend till October. Interestingly, their predictions are based on wind direction on specific days, cloud formation and astrology.

“I stand by my initial forecast on the average rainfall being 70% this year. We can look forward to heavy rainfall in the first week of August across the state and an average of 35 to 40 inches of rainfall this season,” said Sanjanbha Sumaniya, a resident of Aniyali village near Dwarka when DNA had got in touch with him in June. Sumaniya predicts rainfall based on wind direction and cloud formation.

“I had observed the wind direction on Holi and Akshaya Tritiya. On that basis, I inferred whether or not clouds will have enough wind pressure to travel. Cloud observation is done between the months of Kartik and Chaitra of the Gujarati calendar, which are the first four months of Vikram Samvat calendar,” he had said. He explained that the beginning of the season suggested weak cloud formation while the wind direction suggested scattered rainfall. “This season, rainfall will be heavy to moderate and intermittent. There are chances that it may continue during October also,” he added.

Another expert, Ambalal Patel, too had agreed with Sumaniya. “This year we have seen extended period of high temperature which continued till July in plains of Ganga. This resulted in poor cloud formation and delay in rainfall activity. However, we will see good rainfall beginning in the last week of July and throughout August,” he had predicted. A resident of Ahmedabad, Patel studies planetary positions and temperature spread in order to forecast weather conditions.

“Cloud formation has been divided. One has moved towards Assam and another has shifted towards north-west India towards the Himalayas. This was the main cause behind the delayed and low rain activity that we saw initially,” said Patel. He also predicted uneven distribution of rainfall in the state with some places getting higher rainfall compared to others. “Positions of planet Mercury and Venus are favourable which limits the chances of drought,” he added.

Another method of predicting rainfall is ‘Bhadali Sutra’. “It depends on 12 phases of Surya Nakshatra. Bhadali was the daughter of an astrologer and she translated some of the Sanskrit shlokas into Gujarati language for better understanding. All phases of Nakshatra signal the amount of rainfall and how it will benefit the farmers,” reasoned Pravin Vora, an expert of Bhadali Sutra. The Rajkot resident earlier worked as the deputy director in the state agricultural department.

 “My prediction suggests 70 to 75% rainfall this season. Rainfall activity will start from July 17 and will continue till November 4. It will not be evenly distributed but there are no chances of water scarcity or drought,” Vora had concluded way back in June when it seemed the rains would desert the state.