Will Jyotiraditya Scindia get a berth in the Modi cabinet?

Out of 28 seats in Madhya Pradesh by-elections, BJP won 19, while Congress had to satisfy nine seats. The by-elections were required after Congress leader Jyotiraditya Scindia jumped the ship to BJP in March this year and his 22 loyal MLAs. This led to the collapse of the Kamal Nath-led Congress government and the BJP government's establishment under Shivraj Singh Chauhan. Three other Congress MLAs later resigned, while three more assembly constituencies were vacated as the untimely demise of sitting MLAs. The results of the by-elections were announced on November 10. One seat in the 230-member House is still vacant as another Congress MLA, Rahul Lodhi, resigned.

On paper, this victory strengthened the Chouhan government, taking the BJP to 126, ten more than the majority mark. This reduces the chance of Kamal Nath's return or any possibility of midterm elections. The by-elections' victory now also gives moral credibility to the BJP government, which bowed down to the Congress defeat.

But compared to Chouhan and BJP, the results of the by-election may be career-defining for Scindia. As for the royal score, ensuring victory for the 25 Congress MLAs - now contesting on a BJP ticket - was a matter of prestige and political credibility in his new party. Scindia knew that the by-election strike-rate was most important for him to grow within BJP, especially in Madhya Pradesh, which is dominated by veterans like CM Chouhan and Union Minister Narendra Singh Tomar. 

To achieve his target Scindia campaigned across the state - from sunrise to sunset, meeting people and party workers till midnight. During the campaign there was a perception that Scindia was not being given that much prominence as he enjoyed in his old party, Congress. His face was not included in all the BJP posters and publicity material, and he was listed at number 10 in the party's star campaigners.

Despite such snubs, Scindia has so far won a good deal from the BJP. Scindia's first achievement was to give tickets to all 25 defective MLAs. He then got 12 ministerial posts in the Chauhan government. He had also secured a Rajya Sabha seat for himself earlier in June, although the Modi cabinet's much-anticipated ministerial position is still for him.

After the BJP's victory in the by-elections, will Scindia be included in the Modi cabinet? It will depend on how Scindia and his opponents present the results to the BJP high command. Sixteen of the 28 seats were in the Gwalior-Chambal region, known as the citadel of Scindia. 
In the 2018 assembly elections, the Congress won all 16 seats. The entire Chambal-Gwalior region has 34 assembly seats, and of these, Congress won 26 seats in 2018, primarily driven by Scindia's popularity in the region. 
In the 16 seats where the by-elections were held on November 3, Scindia, now campaigning for the BJP, could manage to win only 9, reducing his influence in the region. The result is particularly important for Scindia, who told voters that his vote was not for the candidate, but him - their Shrimant, the Maharaja. People showed their allegiance with more than 50 percent seats, but what was embarrassing for Scindia was that three of the 12 members who were made ministers in Chouhan's cabinet lost their seats. All three are from the Gwalior-Chambal region. The defeat of Imarti Devi, in particular, was a setback for the Gwalior royal as both Scindia and the BJP made unfamiliar remarks to Kamal Nath, which was an election issue for them.

His critics within the BJP are now claiming that seven of the nine seats Congress won in the state came from the Gwalior-Chambal region. While he had won these seats for the Congress in 2018, but could not do so for the BJP.

In March, Scindia entrusted the government to the BJP, and in November, he played a significant role in nearly 50 percent of the seats won in the by-elections. It is up to the Brass of the BJP whether they want to reward the Maharaja or depict this as a collective contribution victory.