Will more Rohingyas swarm into India as Myanmar civil war rages? Bangladesh decides to...

As the civil war in Myanmar, particularly in the province of Rakhine, has reached a decisive stage, will more Rohingyas flee their country and take refuge in Bangladesh and India? This question has cropped up due to the internal politics of Bangladesh and the policies of its chief advisor, Muhammad Yunus. In an attempt to weaken General Waker Uz Zaman, Bangladesh's government's chief advisor, Muhammad Yunus appointed Khalilur Rahman, a US citizen, as National Security Advisor. Due to Yunus' stand on allowing the US Army to arrive in the country to intervene in Myanmar, the Bangladeshi Army appears to be vertically split. 

Another Rohingya influx?

The Chief of Army Staff and most other senior officers of the Bangladesh Army believe that the emergent security situation in Bangladesh and Myanmar could cast a shadow over China, Russia and India. The country could get enmeshed in a "geopolitical competition" that could push Bangladesh to the centre of this storm.

On the other hand, the NSA announced that Bangladesh would provide logistical support to transfer aid across the Bangladesh-Myanmar border. Khalilur Rahman said on Wednesday. "UN would organize distribution of aid through its channels within Rakhine and Bangladesh would provide logistical support to transfer aid across the Bangladesh-Myanmar border," he told the reporters. Bangladesh has decided to keep informal contact with the Arakan Army, an ethnic-armed organization based in Rakhine State.

Bangladesh to keep contact with Arakan Army

"Bangladesh government realized the need for keeping contact with the Arakan Army when they took control of the Myanmar side of our border. Bangladesh must protect its border and keep it peaceful. For this reason, Bangladesh decided to make informal contacts with the Arakan Army," Rahman said. "Bangladesh government has continued to engage them in the context of consideration of provision of humanitarian support, repatriation of the Rohingyas, and the inclusion of the Rohingyas at all levels of the emerging governance and security structure in Rakhine," he added.

What did Bangladesh NSA say?

Further, the NSA highlighted that Bangladesh's contact with the Arakan Army is due to practical necessity. "At the same time, Bangladesh is maintaining contacts with the Myanmar government. It is necessary to keep in touch with all relevant actors to sustainably resolve the Rohingya issue." Political Parties, including the largest Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), are opposing such a corridor, considering it a threat to National Security. They said it would turn Bangladesh into a war zone.

"Giving aid in a conflict situation poses safety and security risks to the aid providers and recipients. Prevalence of landmines and IEDs is another threat to safety and security. These issues need to be addressed ahead of the provision of aid," NSA said. "Stability in Rakhine is Bangladesh's priority. Hardly any progress can be made towards repatriation without achieving it. Bangladesh doesn't want another influx of refugees. It simply can't afford this. There has been a sizeable influx of Rohingyas from Rakhine during an intensified conflict between the Arakan Army and Myanmar forces from 2023 until the autumn of 2024. Rohingyas have continued to enter Bangladesh thereafter, albeit in smaller numbers," Rahman said.

Arakan Army to take care of the Rohingyas?

"Bangladesh is coordinating with the relevant actors to prevent another wave of refugees into Bangladesh. In particular, the Bangladesh government has signalled to the Arakan Army that they must ensure that there is no further violence, discrimination, and displacement of Rohingyas inside Rakhine. They have the responsibility to observe international law, including international humanitarian law. And the world is watching. Bangladesh's continued contacts with them will depend upon their action in this area, as well as on Rohingya representation," he added. 

(With inputs from ANI.)