Will India-Canada ties improve after pro-Khalistan leader loses election? Prime Minister Mark Carney said...

Will India-Canada relations improve after Mike Carney-led Liberal Party emerged victorious in the federal elections in the North American country? Will the former central bank chief be able to press the reset button despite winning 164 seats out of the required 172 for a majority in the House of 343? Will he come under the pressure of coalition politics as he will have to form a government with the help of other parties or take steps against the Khalistani separatists mushrooming on Canadian soil?

Narendra Modi congratulates Mark Carney

Prime Minister Narendra Modi was quick to congratulate Carney as he took to social media and wrote in a post on X, "Congratulations Mark Carney on your election as the Prime Minister of Canada and to the Liberal Party on their victory. India and Canada are bound by shared democratic values, a steadfast commitment to the rule of law, and vibrant people-to-people ties." He added, "I look forward to working with you to strengthen our partnership and unlock greater opportunities for our people."

Will India-Canada relations improve?

Modi may not be disappointed, as during the election campaign itself, the Liberal Party leader indicated a thaw in the bilateral relations. On his campaign trail in Ontario, he said, "It’s an incredibly important relationship, the Canada-India relationship, on many levels. On the personal level, with Canadians having deep personal ties, economically and strategically". Adopting a pragmatic approach, Carney also said, "There are strains on that relationship that we didn’t cause, to be clear, but there is a path forward to address those with mutual respect and to build out."

India-Canada ties hit rock-bottom under Justin Trudeau

India-Canada ties hit rock bottom after then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused India of being involved in the 2023 killing of Sikh separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar at a Gurudwara in British Columbia. Taking one step further, he added, "The Indian government made a horrific mistake in thinking that they could interfere as aggressively as they did in the safety and sovereignty of Canada. We need to respond in order to ensure Canadians’ safety." 

India reacted by temporarily stopping issuing visas in Canada; Ottawa retaliated by expelling six senior diplomats, including the high commissioner, Sanjay Verma. India responded by ordering the expulsion of six high-ranking Canadian diplomats, including the acting high commissioner.

Pro-Khalistan Jagmeet Singh loses election 

Carney may not be dependent on pro-Khalistan Jagmeet Singh and his New Democratic Party (NDP), which could win only 8 seats, compared to 24 last time. Singh failed to retain his seat. Justin Trudeau formed his government with the help of the NDP and was under pressure. 

If media reports are to be believed, Carney has longstanding ties in India with plenty of friends in the Modi government. He is expected to “look to leverage those relations.” Reports also suggest he may go for a “major reset”.

Canadians of Indian origin number about 1.8 million, or 3% of the total population. Canada also hosts an estimated 427,000 Indian students. Besides, India-Canada bilateral trade reached $9.36 billion in 2023. Trade ties remained stable, with India exporting goods worth $5.56 billion and importing products worth $3.80 billion.