Why there will be no India-US deal during JD Vance's visit? What is Donald Trump's main intention?

The talks between US Vice President JD Vance and Prime Minister Narendra Modi may not culminate in a trade deal, but they will certainly lay the foundations for future talks and the much-expected Bilateral Trade Agreement. The two leaders are most likely to focus on easing the tariff-related tensions, a broader U.S.-China trade war, and a bilateral trade deal. 

The visit of JD Vance has come on the heels of Modi's US trip in February, when the two countries resolved to increase the bilateral trade to $500 billion in 2030. However, almost at the same time, US President Donald Trump announced reciprocal tariffs and announced the imposition of a 26% tariff on Indian goods a few weeks later. Though he has suspended it for 90 days, he set the alarm bell ringing. 

Negotiations on tariffs, concessions

As JD Vance has come to India in these circumstances, the expectations are high, and so high are the stakes. Political observers believe the high officials of both countries are likely to negotiate specific tariff cuts, India may offer to reduce duties on U.S. imports in sectors like electronics, medical equipment, and agriculture to avoid steeper U.S. reciprocal tariffs. 

Will India further slash tariffs?

If reports are to be believed, New Delhi may propose further tariff cuts on U.S. goods, building on recent cuts from 13% to 11%. The officials of the two big democracies may discuss sector-specific exemptions, particularly for Indian exports like shrimp, gems, jewelry, and pharmaceuticals.

India-US defence cooperation?

After Donald Trump set the ball rolling by offering to sell  M-35 stealth fighter jets to India during Modi's visit, Vance may put pressure on India to buy more military hardware from Washington. The two countries may discuss defense partnerships, including co-producing U.S. arms like Javelin missiles and Stryker vehicles. Besides, U.S. nuclear technology investments may also be discussed. These measures could strengthen India’s strategic position as a counterbalance to China in the Indo-Pacific.

US to use to counter China?

While holding talks on business and strategic issues, China is most likely to figure out what ways and means the US may consider to counter the communist regime. After Trump raised the tariffs on China to the farcical level of 245% and Beijing retaliated with a 125% tariff, New Delhi is in a position of strength. It may position itself as a reliable alternative supplier to the U.S., leveraging its bilateral trade of $190 billion to secure better terms. 

No India-US deal?

However, no trade agreements are expected to be signed during Vance’s visit. The two sides may just do the groundwork for future deals and prepare for President Trump’s potential visit later in 2025. The US Vice President's visit seems to be exploratory so that the stage for further negotiations within the 90-day tariff pause may be set in.