Why BJP's winning chariot in Gujarat has been unstoppable since 1995? Can AAP hurt its prospects in Modi's home state?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his first election rally in poll-bound Gujarat on Sunday, coined a new slogan: “Aa Gujarat, mai bnavyu chhe (I have made this Gujarat).” Predicting a massive victory for the BJP, PM Modi launched a veiled attack on the Congress saying that the forces spreading hatred and defaming Gujarat will be swept out of the state. 

Gujarat will vote on December 1 and 5 and the counting will be taken up on December 8, along with Himachal Pradesh, also ruled by the BJP. 

If BJP manages to win again, it will create a history by being in power for 32 years. It has won six consecutive assembly elections in the state since 1995. The BJP’s peak performance in Gujarat came in the December 2002 elections under Modi, when the party had bagged 127 of the total 182 seats. In 2017, its tally shrunk to 99, while the Congress got 77.  

Political experts believe the drop in BJP’s seat share was due to the Patidar quota stir in the state, which was then led by community leader Hardik Patel, who has now joined the BJP. Despite that and the anti-incumbency factor being high, the saffron party managed to get a simple majority. 

Notably, the BJP retained power despite the said anger among the people over Modi’s demonetisation move and decision to implement GST. 

However, this time, the bilateral contest between the BJP and the Congress has turned into a three-cornered battle with the Aam Aadmi Party emerging as an unavoidable contender. In 2017, Kejriwal’s party had contested 29 out of the 182 Assembly seats and forfeited its deposit on all. 

Almost every political veteran and analyst in Gujarat will argue that there is no space for a third force in Gujarat, but the key contesting parties have finally begun to take note of AAP and its relentless campaign in the state. 

The credit for BJP’s 27-year uninterrupted rule in Gujarat goes a lot to Narendra Modi’s tenure as chief minister from 2001 to 2014. After the 2001 earthquake rocked Gujarat’s Kutch region, Modi ensured redevelopment of the region within the next decade. 

He established financial and technological parks and started Vibrant Gujarat Summit, which eventually led to the economical growth of the state. In fact, the GDP growth rate of the state was more than of the country and the state topped ‘ease of business’ rankings among Indian states during his tenure.

While the BJP banked on Modi’s ‘Gujarat Model’ during its Lok Sabha election campaign in 2014, it is now focusing the campaign around ‘double-engine government’, with the party aware of the fact that Modi’s popularity has barely taken any hit. 

Another reason behind BJP’s uninterrupted victory run is the Congress getting feebler with every election. Notably, the Grand Old Party has no Lok Sabha seats in the state since 2014. 

In the assembly elections held in 1980 — the founding year of the BJP — the party had contested 127 seats of 182, winning only nine, when the Congress, under Solanki won 141 seats, and the Janata Party (JNP) had won 21, with 10 going to independents. But there has been no looking back for the BJP since.