INDIA
Another Mumbai-type attack and India will most likely strike back by eliminating terrorist training camps across the border, leading to a “full-blown” war with Pakistan possibly involving nuclear arms, a noted US counter-terrorism expert has said.
Another Mumbai-type attack and India will most likely strike back by eliminating terrorist training camps across the border, leading to a “full-blown” war with Pakistan possibly involving nuclear arms, a noted US counter-terrorism expert has said.
“I think a very serious concern that we should all be collectively worried about is the possibility of a Mumbai-II attack,” Peter Bergen, counter-terrorism strategy initiative co-director at New America Foundation, said in a testimony before the house homeland and security committee recently. Mumbai-II, Bergen said, would change every strategic calculation in South Asia.
“I think the Indians showed great restraint after the last Mumbai attack. But their populations are going to demand some kind of retribution if a large-scale attack happens on Indian soil by a Pakistani militant group, which I think is one of the more foreseeable foreign policy challenges we have going forward,” he told the committee which held a hearing on the evolving nature of terrorism nine years after 9/11.
One of the more predictable US foreign policy challenges of the next years is a “Mumbai II”, a large-scale attack on a major Indian city by a Pakistani militant group that kills hundreds, Bergen said.
An attack like this would likely produce considerable political pressure on the Indian government to “do something”, he said.
“That something would likely involve incursions over the border to eliminate training camps of Pakistani militant groups with histories of attacking India. That could lead in turn to a full-blown war for the fourth time since 1947 between India and Pakistan,” Bergen said.
“Such a war involves the possibility of a nuclear exchange and the certainty that Pakistan would move substantial resources to its eastern border and away from fighting the Taliban on its western border, so relieving pressure on all militant groups based there, including al-Qaeda,” he said.
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