Upendra Kushwaha's switch unlikely to make big impact in Bihar, says Senior BJP leader

Ending months of suspense, Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) chief Upendra Kushwaha finally revealed his cards on Thursday when he formally switched over to the Mahagathbandhan in the presence of its senior leaders, who claimed Kushwaha's entry had strengthened UPA manifold.

This prompted the political observers to do some quick calculations to estimate the actual impact that the development will have in Bihar, especially in the wake of the 2019 Lok Sabha and 2020 Vidhan Sabha polls.

"While Kushwaha claims to have an influence on around 5% votes of the Koeri community in the state, in the 2015 Bihar assembly election, his party's vote share stood at around 2.6% of the polled votes, fetching him 2 seats. Then, he was in alliance with the BJP, which had polled around 24% votes in 2015 and almost 30% in 2014," said a senior BJP leader and added, "Whereas compared to the RLSP, the JD-U polled around 16% votes in both the parliamentary and assembly elections. This means the BJP has gained a bigger ally in comparison to the RLSP."

That apart, JD-U President and Bihar CM Nitish Kumar as well as other leaders of his party too, hold a considerable sway of the particular section of OBC voters who hail from Kushwaha's community. Also, Kushwaha comes to the UPA with one MP — Ram Kumar Sharma. RLSP's two MLAs and one MLC have already declared they are still with the NDA.

Thus, while Kushwaha alone does not have the numbers to make any major impact on state politics, he may be able to tilt some votes in favour of the Mahagathbandhan, in alliance with the Congress, RJD and others.

While the RJD had polled around 20% votes in 2014 and over 18% in 2015, the Congress vote share stoon between 6-8% in both polls.