Upendra Kushwaha's exit may hurt Bihar CM Nitish as BJP goes fishing for JD-U weak links

After the separation of the Janata Dal-United (JD-U) from the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in August 2022, the BJP targeted the weak links of the party to hurt the vote bank of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.

Upendra Kushwaha is one of those leaders who was aiming to inherit the legacy of Nitish Kumar and lead the JD-U and Bihar. When Nitish Kumar refused to hand over the baton to him, he left the party and formed a new political outfit named the Rashtriya Lok Janata Dal (RLJD).

Kushwaha blamed Nitish Kumar that the Lav-Kush equation which would give the post of chief minister to him, was being hurt due to his decision to promote RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav as his political successor in Bihar.

When Upendra Kushwaha became a rebel, the JD-U leaders blamed the BJP. They said that it has written the screenplay in which Kushwaha plays the role of a rebel leader.

This seemed to be evident when Kushwaha was admitted to AIIMS Delhi and three top leaders of the BJP met him. A picture was also circulated in every social and frontline media platform. When Upendra Kushwaha left the JD-U and formed a new political party, BJP Bihar president Sanjay Jaiswal met him in Patna and appreciated his decision.

Now, the bigger question in the politics of Bihar is whether the Upendra Kushwaha factor would hurt the ruling JD-U and the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) in the 2024 and 2025 polls or not, depending on leaders like Nitish Kumar to keep the Lav-Kush equation intact and have good coordination with the Yadavs.

In the last 30 years, the leaders of these three castes have ruled in Bihar and it was possible only when these three castes came together.

If we analyse the caste factors in Bihar, the upper castes have ruled the state for the maximum time post independence despite their numbers being much lower than these three Kurmi (Lav) Koiri (Kush or Kushwaha) and Yadav. These three forces had played a pivotal role in transferring power from the upper castes to the Other Backward Castes (OBC). Lalu Prasad Yadav emerged as the leader of the OBCs in 1990.

Though, the Bihar government is conducting a caste based census, it is estimated that Yadavs constitute 17% of the total population of Bihar while the Kushwahas are 13% and Kurmis 7%. Among these three castes, the Yadavs are less educated compared to the Kurmis and the Koiris. It has led to rivalry between the Yadavs and Lav-Kush.

Nitish Kumar, who belongs to the Awadhiya Kurmi, had a sour relationship with Lalu Prasad Yadav in the early 1990es. He participated in a Kurmi-Koiri rally in 1994 in Patna where he was given the name Lav-Kush community. Lav stands for Kurmi and Kush stands for Koiri or Kushwaha. The Lav-Kush community has a big rivalry with Yadavs in Bihar.

In 2003, Nitish Kumar made Upendra Kushwaha the Leader of Opposition in the Bihar assembly during the Rabri Devi government.

When Nitish Kumar announced several times that Tejashwi Yadav will inherit his political legacy in Bihar, Upendra Kushwaha made an issue of it and became a rebel.

He claimed that the values on which the Samata Party (which was founded in 1994 and later transformed into the Janata Dal - United), was formed had been undermined by Nitish Kumar who has announced to hand over his legacy to Tejashwi Yadav.

Upendra Kushwaha, after forming the new political party, has currently undertaken a "Virasat Bachao Naman Yatra" in Bihar, and is extremely vocal against Nitish Kumar these days.

"Lav-Kush society, EBC, minority, Mahadalits communities have given strength to Nitish Kumar but he, instead of handing over his legacy to leaders of these communities, he is talking about those who were responsible for destroying the state. After a long struggle, we managed to get out of the Jungle Raj," Kushwaha said.

"The political regime of Bihar was changed in 2005 and Lav-Kush society has played a big role to bring out the state from anarchy, loot, murders, rapes. The traders were leaving the state and common people were living in fear. Still, Nitish Kumar is looking at his successor in the house of a neighbour (Rabri Devi`s residence where her son Tejashwi Yadav also lives is situated adjacent to the residence of Nitish Kumar) and not within his house (Lav-Kush community)," Kushwaha said.

"Upendra Kushwaha was aiming to take over the political legacy of Nitish Kumar but the latter refused but I don`t think it will hurt our party. In the past, George Fernandes, Sharad Yadav and others also left the party. It hurt temporarily but Lav-Kush society always backed Nitish Kumar," said Abhishek Kumar Jha, spokesperson of the JD-U.

"Upendra Kushwaha left the JD-U three times in the past. In the 2015 assembly election, Kushwaha was not with the JD-U, still the Mahagathbandhan had performed well. We want to repeat the result of 2015 and hence the party is focusing on consolidating its position at the ground level. The idea is to avoid division in the Lav-Kush equation," Jha said.

For Upendra Kushwaha, leaving the JD-U could be a win-win situation as the BJP is the only opposition party in Bihar and is looking to forge an alliance with the smaller parties to challenge the Mahagathbandhan of 7 parties. It has good political relations with Chirag Paswan, Pasupati Kumar and now Upendra Kushwaha who is considered the biggest leader of the Koiri caste in Bihar.

In case Upendra Kushwaha performs well in the 2024 Lok Sabha election and manages to influence the Koiri voters in favour of the NDA, his bargaining power with the BJP for the 2025 assembly election will increase substantially.

Nitish Kumar during the Purnea rally held on February 25 said that Jitan Ram Manjhi would be the next target of the BJP in Bihar to be included in the NDA. Following his statement, Manjhi publicly said that he will not go with Nitish Kumar for his entire life.

Meanwhile, the BJP is adopting a balanced approach to the political developments in Bihar. The biggest challenge for the BJP is to perform well in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. Hence, every rebel in the Mahagathbandhan is turning out to be a friend for it.

"Nitish Kumar is fast losing credibility and the JD-U people are feeling lost and are looking for options. The defection of Upendra Kushwaha from the JD-U is the biggest example of JD-U leaders losing faith in the leadership of Nitish Kumar. Upendra Ji has formed a political party while JD-U leaders in big numbers are planning to move out and many of them are in touch with the BJP," said Nikhil Anand, national general secretary of the BJP OBC wing and state spokesperson.

"The Bihar BJP is working in the most serious and sincere manner to expand the ideological and organisational horizons. We are now working to take the programmes of the party to Mandal and booth level. The decision on any person joining the BJP or any party joining the NDA has to be taken by the top leadership so we don`t want to say anything. But we are sure that the way the BJP is working on its organisation at the booth level, not only the leaders and the parties but the common people of Bihar are looking towards the BJP as a future hope," Anand said.