Third wave fuelled by Omicron likely to hit India in early 2022, COVID-19 math model predicts

The Omicron variant of COVID-19 has put governments across the world on high alert. The more transmissible new variant has forced reanalysis of the current predictions of the pandemic. The Sutra mathematical model for COVID-19, developed by IIT Kanpur and backed by the Indian government, has concluded that a third wave of COVID-19 is likely to hit India early next year between January and February 2022. Professor Manindra Agrawal, who heads the project, revealed on Saturday, December 4.  

In a Twitter thread where he revealed the findings of the Sutra model and the insights that emerged with it, Prof Agrawal explained that a third wave due to the newfound Omicron variant will peak early next year. However, the wave is likely to be milder as the new variant of concern isn’t appearing to bypass the natural COVID-19 immunity in individuals in any significant way, said Prof Agrawal, contrary to recent research in South Africa.

Conclusions:
(1) Evidence so far suggests that there will be a mild third wave in India early next year.
(2) As observed during spread of delta, a mild lockdown (night curfew, restrictions on crowding) can bring down beta substantially. That will significantly reduce peak value.

— Manindra Agrawal (@agrawalmanindra) December 3, 2021

Noting that the new variant isn’t developing severe infections across the world, he asserted that the third wave will likely by mild as per what the Omicron data thus far seems to suggest. However, with its increased transmissibility cannot be ignored.

Prof Agrawal further said that while a third wave is a certainty, its scale and impact will hinge on how it is tackled by the government. He listed mild lockdown measures like night curfew, crowd restrictions as likely enough to limit the spread of the virus and diminishing the peak.

In their study, the team at IIT-K plotted three scenarios based on the efficacy of vaccine immunity against the new variant. The findings suggested a “mild third wave, with peak between 100-150K infections per day occurring sometime in Feb,” Prof Agrawal shared. He further said that the hospitalisation load is even lower as per the mathematical model with indications that Omicron cases are mostly mild. He did, however, say that more data is awaited to be sure of this.

It is to be noted that the time predicted is also polling time in India with a number of states – Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa – slated to conduct Assembly Elections during the predicted time.