SP, BSP may step in, but likely to do a Mamata

With the Congress refusing a rollback, it is more than apparent that Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress will have to sever their links with the UPA when the deadline expires on Friday afternoon.

There was no sign of easing of tension between the two sides, with finance minister P Chidambaram insisting that the government will adhere to its position. On the other hand, in Kolkata, TMC boss and West Bengal chief minister upped the ante and even accused the Centre of tapping her phone, an allegation which the Congress promptly denied.

Now that it’s clear that the Congress will not come around to toeing the Mamata line, the party has begun approaching the two Uttar Pradesh-based “friendly” parties, Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party. The Congress did not explain why and how the party felt comfortable about the required numbers to survive in a hostile Parliament but it was clear that the party had made its calculations. The Congress, however, also factored in the possibility that both these parties were politically unreliable and survival based on their support might prove to be a roller-coaster ride.

Senior Congress sources said that it suited the party to keep Mayawati on its side. She did not join the Bharat bandh on Friday, as Mulayam had taken the lead to be part of the protests alongside the Left leadership. An important reason for befriending the Dalit leader in the Congress’s hour of crisis was the fact that she did not want an early election, with the Samajwadi Party enjoying a clear advantage at the moment. It is in her interest to keep this government going as long as possible and, if necessary, even till 2014.

What worries Congress, despite realising the advantage of courting Mayawati, is that she will not create a harmonious situation whereby the Congress can feel assured of her support.

She has already criticised the “anti-poor” policies of the government and said that a decision about the party’s stand regarding Congress will be taken on October 9. But Congress sources believe that the crucial BSP meeting might not yield any firm commitment.

For the Congress, therefore, survival planning will have be done on a monthly or, occasionally, even on a weekly basis, with neither Mulayam nor Mayawati allowing the biggest party in the country to breathe easy.

Mulayam’s stance is also difficult to assess. He has openly been campaigning against the “anti-people” policies of the Congress. His party spokesperson held a press conference on Thursday complaining that this government was badly letting down farmers, especially the marginal ones. Mulayam, himself, happily mingled with the Left and the Telugu Desam leaders to voice his protest at a rally on Parliament Street.

What is interesting is that some of Mulayam’s Samajwadi colleagues are also going about telling the media how difficult it is to vote against a secular government and, thereby, strengthening the hands of the “communal forces” – implying the BJP. Mulayam is so averse to the BJP that on Thursday afternoon he refused to share the protest platform with Nitin Gadkari, Murli Manohar Joshi and other senior BJP leaders. He was seen huddled close to the Left leaders far away from where the BJP leaders were going about their protest. These are signals which give hope to the Congress, but one can never predict correctly what exactly is going on in the mind of an “opportunistic” Mulayam.

The Congress has heard reports that this is not entirely true that Mulayam is desperate about an early poll. His son has been far from administratively mature in the first six months of his rule in India’s most populous state. There have been several incidents of communal violence apart from a terrible power shortage in the past few months. Indeed, it has been Akhilesh Yadav’s baptism by fire. Mulayam, some people in the Samajwadi think tank suggest, wants to give him some time to recoup and reassure the electorate about his ability to deliver on good governance.

So, these are interesting times ahead for the Congress, especially after the anticipated exit of Mamata on Friday. Walking the tightrope with crucial support from Mayawati and Mulayam will not be an easy task. In fact, after Mamata leaves the coalition, the Congress may have to address the grievances of other allies, such as DMK, NCP and a few senior leaders within the party, who have been peeved by the steep diesel price hike and the subsidy cut on LPG. Maybe, with Mamata gone, the Congress will stoop low to think of a very marginal rollback to satisfy its grumpy allies.