Numbers show little appetite for Opposition's presidential candidate

Last Friday leaders of 17 prominent national and regional parties were in the Capital to attend a lunch hosted by Congress Chief Sonia Gandhi. The hot topic of the lunch was the upcoming election for the 14th President of India.

But, if the numbers are anything to go by, Congress and other parties present at the luncheon will soon lose their appetite for pitching their own candidate against that of the BJP.

Before we take you through the maths of the presidential election, a brief primer on the mechanics that inform the election is required. An electoral college — comprising the members of the houses of the Parliament and the members of Legislative Assemblies of states and Union territories — elects the President.

Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha collectively make up for the 776 members of the electoral college, while the total number of MLAs in India is 4,120.

Using certain formulas as prescribed under the Presidential and Vice Presidential Election Rules, 1974, the value of an MP's vote is calculated by dividing the total value of votes of all the states by the total number of elected members of Parliament. Value of an MLA's vote on the other hand is determined by the state he represents. For instance, the value of an MLA's vote from Sikkim is 7 while that of one from UP is 208.

The electoral college has a total vote value of 10,98,882. Out of this, NDA and its allies have a smooth hold over 48 per cent of the electoral college leaving them with a very minor deficit of votes to reach a majority, which will help them elect the President.

Those present at Sonia Gandhi's lunch can collectively muster only 36.25 per cent hold (3,98,357 votes) over the electoral college. As per other estimates, the umbrella opposition can muster a total vote base of 4,02,230 or 36.60 per cent, a marginal increase of just 35 basis points over the lunch parties.

The king-maker in this situation are the unaligned parties, which includes the likes of AIADMK, TRS, YSRCP, AAP, and INLD. These together hold over 13.4 per cent of the votes in the electoral college. AIADMK alone, with its consolidated clout in the two houses of the Parliament and the state assembly of over 5.4 per cent or 59,224 votes, can help the BJP achieve a comfortable win. In fact, its vote share from the Lok Sabha alone is 26,196 votes, more than enough for the NDA to fill the deficit.

Reportedly, even YSR Congress' Jaganmohan Reddy, who has a vote base of 16,848 or 1.5 per cent, has offered support to the BJP. This, coupled with support from the Telangana Rashtra Samiti at 23,232 votes, which is about 2.14 per cent, can help the BJP meet the required numbers.

A number of electoral college votes remain unaccounted for on account of vacant seats and members ousted from parties.