Now or never for BJP in Bihar

As they wait for their train at Patna's Sachivalaya Halt railway station, a group of passengers get into a conversation, which invariably turns to politics. Most agree that the ruling JD(U) will be grounded in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections and that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will sweep Bihar.

"BJP ke liye Bihar me abhi nahi to kabhi nahi wali sthiti hai (It is now or never for BJP in Bihar)," says Vindhyachal. The others nod in approval.

The way Vindhyachal puts it encapsulates the electorates' perception of BJP in the state. The 46-year-old farmer is waiting for an electro-motor unit for Tudinganj from where he will travel another six
km to reach his village, Chowkiya, in Buxar district. Buxar will go to polls on April 10, which will kick-off the nine-phase polling in the country. Polling for all the 40 seats in the state will take place in
six phases until May 12.

So what is it that is working in favour of the BJP in Bihar?

A combination of factors, say experts. Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar breaking an alliance with the BJP, the overpowering caste factor and the OBC spin of BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi and a yearning for change will work to the BJP's advantage in the state.

"The people of Bihar are indeed looking for a change. They have tried Rashtriya Janata Dal, they have seen JD(U)," senior economist at Patna-based Asian Development and Research Institute (ADRI), RK Shahi told dna. "Now, they do not have any other alternative. There is a widespread feeling among the voters that the JD(U) has misled the BJP."

JD(U) snapped ties with the BJP in June 2013 over Modi's candidature for the prime minister's post. The acrimonious split caused much anger, which hasn't been dissipated. A stroll down Patna's upmarket
Boring road helps get an idea of the anger on the streets against Nitish for going against the people's mandate. The upper caste, primarily the brahmins, kayasths and rajputs, who traditionally voted for the JD(U) because it was in an alliance with the BJP are now likely to gravitate to the saffron party.

The narrative in the rural areas, where Nitish's pro-poor policies, such as free bicycles and sanitary napkins to girl students, free medicines and improved primary health centres, along with Janata darbars, may still give him an edge over the BJP. But the rampant issuance of liquor licences to generate revenues is likely to boomerang upon Nitish as women — both urban poor and rural — have
criticised the state for the decision. Liquor shops in rural areas have increased from 779 in 2006-07 to 2,360 in 2012-13, setting the government's cash registers; excise revenue has increased five-fold
from Rs 525 crore to Rs 2,765 crore in these six years.

With an anti-incumbency factor playing out against Nitish and a weakening Lalu Prasad-led Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), will the BJP have a free run? "BJP will have to factor in forces such as the Congress-RJD alliance. Lalu still commands a hold on the Muslim-Yadav votebank. Some of them may have drifted, but the fact is that they are still with him," said Shahi.

Both Lalu and Nitish are now banking on the minorities to block the BJP's run in Bihar. While Lalu has returned to his rhetoric of "trampling the communal forces", Nitish is applying his social engineering skills to bring a variety of voters into his fold.

"The BJP is struggling to get allies. But Nitish Kumar has a strong support base among the weakest sections of the society — the dalits, the mahadalits, the other backward classes and the extremely backward minorities. BJP is a victim of hype and publicity," former IFS officer and Nitish's advisor, Pawan Varma, told dna. "Agreed, that after 10 years of incumbency, there are certain unhappy voices.

Expectations outstrip performance. But there is no alternative in Bihar. The minorities have realised that Lalu Prasad is disintegrating in his own party. They have also realised that Lalu is not a bulwark for them anymore.

Might an anti-corruption plank sway voters in the state?

"Corruption is an issue, but caste takes a higher precedence in the voter's mind. BJP has given tickets to those whose caste is in the majority in the constituency. The Modi-is-an-OBC card that the BJP is trying to play will also work. But it remains to be seen to what extent," said Shahi.

The caste factor
1.Backward (Lohar, Kumhar, Badhai, Nau): 23%
2. Dalits: 22%
3. Muslims: 16%
4. Yadavs: 15%
5. Brahmins and upper caste: 15%
6. Kushwaha: 6%
7. Kurmi: 3%