Nitish Kumar gets 56-inch chest cover, RJD Congress's Hand

The battle for the 40 parliamentary constituencies of Bihar promises to be a bitter but interesting one, which will be spread over all seven phases of the 2019 Lok Sabha election.

In Bihar, it is likely to be a two-pronged contest between the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Opposition Mahagathbandhan in most of the seats.

Whereas for the NDA, it is likely to be 'Modi vs others', for the Mahagathbandhan, an election sans Lalu will be no less than a litmus test.

The NDA, comprising the BJP, Janata Dal (U) and the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), have agreed upon a 17-17-6 seat sharing in the state. In 2014, BJP had won 22 seats and LJP six, while JD(U), which contested 38 seats separately, managed to win a poor two.

In that light, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's JD(U) seems to be the biggest gainer in the present seat-sharing deal as the BJP will have to concede no less than five sitting constituencies to its partner. "It may seem that JD(U) has got more than it deserved, but if you take into account the fact that JD(U) polled around 16% votes in both parliamentary (2014) and assembly (2015) elections, you will understand the equal division of seats between the BJP and JD(U)," a senior JD(U) leader told DNA.

The Opposition Grand Alliance (GA) on the other hand, is yet to finalise its seat-sharing division among the constituent parties that comprise Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress, Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) of Upendra Kushwaha, Hindustani Awam Morcha-Secular (HAM-S) of Jitan Ram Manjhi, Loktantrik Janata Dal (LJD) of Sharad Yadav and Vikas-sheel Insan Party (VIP) of s/o Mallah fame Mukesh Sahni.

Among them, former Union minister Upendra Kushwaha's RLSP and ex-CM Jitan Ram Manjhi's HAM-S were formerly a part of the NDA but switched over primarily after JD(U) returned to the NDA in Bihar fold in July 2017. "Both Kushwaha and Manjhi were once very close to Nitish and carved out their parties from the JD(U). How long were they expected to stay in the NDA after he re-rejoined?" the JD(U) source added.

The RLSP had won three seats, but one of its MPs, Arun Kumar from Jehanabad, has now floated a different political outfit and is in talks with other parties for a ticket.

In 2014, the RJD had polled around 20% votes but could bag only four seats, while partner Congress won 2 seats with around 8% voting percentage and smaller GA partners had polled around 2% votes.

The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) had bagged one seat in Bihar in 2014, but its MP Tariq Anwar (Katihar) has now joined the Congress.

So has ex-BJP MP Kirti Azad (Darbhanga), after being suspended from the saffron party in the hope of contesting the seat on a Congress ticket in 2019. Actor-turned-politician and BJP MP Shatrughan Sinha too is in search of another party (in the GA), that will field him from his sitting Patna Sahib seat.

The Left front in Bihar, comprising the CPI, CPI(M) and CPI(ML-L), also hopes to be a part of the Mahagathbandhan with a "respectable" seat share. The CPI state unit has already proposed former JNU-SU President Kanhaiya Kumar's name for Begusarai, once known as the Leningrad of Bihar, and Kumar has been reaching out to voters in the constituency over the last few months.

The "charisma" and "vote-bank" of the new entrants such as Sharad Yadav's LJD or Sahni's VIP will also be tested in the coming days considering that in some of the earlier polls, NOTA options had polled more votes than smaller parties in Bihar.

The changing political narrative

The last two general election in Bihar – 2014 Lok Sabha and 2015 Vidhan Sabha – has been a "Bihari versus Bahari" contest, where the "Bihari brothers" Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav tried to keep the Bahari (outsider) Narendra Modi away from power.

This did not happen in 2014, when the Modi wave swept the nation and the NDA won 31 of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar. Nitish, who had parted ways with the NDA over Modi's elevation as PM candidate, and had fought 38 seats (in alliance with Left in two) could barely manage two seats. He stepped down as Bihar CM barely days after the new government assumed power at Centre.

Nitish handed over power to party colleague Jitan Ram Manjhi, but the two had a fallout and the latter is now the chief of a separate political outfit.

What followed after the 2014 debacle was the coming together of two arch-rivals – Nitish and Lalu, bitter enemies for the better part of over a decade. "The poll stats necessitated it. The combined vote share of the RJD-JD(U)-Congress at 44.9% was much more than NDA's 39.3%. For their political existence and relevance, they had to keep aside ideologies and come together," recalled a JD(U) leader.

Ahead of the 2015 assembly polls, the both NDA and GA indulged in a bitter war of words, but, the Mahagathbandhan, succeeded in doing the work it was supposed to do when they returned to power with a whopping 178 seats out of 243 while the BJP combine was limited to 57.

The match, however, did not last long and in July 2017, after much political drama, the Grand Alliance government was replaced by NDA overnight, with Nitish retaining his position as the CM. This also led the RJD to sit as the principal Opposition despite having the maximum number of MLAs (80) in Bihar.

Nitish's return to the NDA fold led to the exit of Kushwaha, an old-aide-turned-adversary and Manjhi, and has brought to fore new political equations, that will test the waters in 2019.

Key issues

• Development: The ruling NDA will try to ride on the "developmental" agenda in the 2019 polls in Bihar. The BJP and JD-U also hope to cash in on the "good governance" and "development with justice" planks of the present government. The NDA rank and file is working to spread awareness about the various welfare schemes and programmes that have been launched by the central and state governments.
• Law and order: The Opposition plans to use "deteriorating law and order in Bihar" as the main chink in the NDA's armour. "Violence against women is on rise, the Muzaffarpur shelter home scandal is just one such example. Murder, loot, rape has become an everyday affair and the CM only says that they neither protect nor implicate anyone. The people know everything," says an RJD MLA.
• Reservation: While the ruling alliance hopes to swing in its favour after the implementation of the 10% quota for the economically backward general class, the RJD has taken up the matter of increasing the reservation ambit to 90%.
• Scams: The NDA will target the RJD over fodder scam and its chief Lalu Prasad Yadav's conviction in the cases, the Opposition targets the state government over multi-crore scams such as "Srijan Scam" and "topper scam".
• Caste: All said and done, caste remains the major influencer in the electoral politics in Bihar and parties are trying all permutations and combinations to ensure the numbers in their favour.
• Prohibition: Bihar implemented liquor ban in April 2016 and the Bihar CM has never once failed to list its benefits at his public meets. The move itself has been popular among the women in rural areas in Bihar and is believed to be one of the major reasons for Nitish's comeback in 2015 (when he had promised prohibition).
• National issues: Defence and security of India, Rafale deal, employment, agrarian crisis, demonetisation and industrialisation (state-level) may also factor in at specific places.

Key leaders

• Lalu Prasad Yadav: Convicted and ailing or not, RJD President Lalu Prasad Yadav continues to arguably be the most prominent face in Bihar politics. However, for 2019 general election, Lalu will be the face of the GA, in absentia.
• Nitish Kumar: Bihar CM and JD-U chief Nitish Kumar will be the face of the NDA in Bihar. His "Vikas purush" and good governance image is something NDA can bank on. Nitish's "kurmi" and non-Yadav backward caste votes also makes him an important player.
• Ram Vilas Paswan: Union minister and LJP president Ram Vilas Paswan is a stalwart Dalit leader and holds considerable sway over Paswan votes in the state. While Paswan himself may not contest from his traditional Hajipur seat, he is expected to extensively campaign for NDA

Others:

• Sushil Kumar Modi: The deputy CM of Bihar and senior BJP leader Sushil Kumar Modi is perhaps the most popular face of the BJP in Bihar. His equation with CM Nitish Kumar along with the fact that he has been a major part of Bihar "developmental saga under the NDA rule" makes his a popular leader in the state.
• Tejashwi Prasad Yadav: In Lalu's absence, RJD MLA and Leader of the Opposition Tejashwi Prasad will be at the help of affairs. He is a popular leader within his party as well as with the masses.
• Upendra Kushwaha: Former Union minister and RLSP President Upendra Kushwaha hopes to sway the 5% or odd Koeri votes in the Mahagathbandhan's favour. However, several smaller leaders from the community are also in the fray and it remains to be seen, how much his claims can he prove on the ground.
• Jitan Ram Manjhi - The first CM of Bihar to have hailed from the Mahadalit Musahar community and claims to have hold over Mahadalit votes in Bihar.
• Gandhis: With Congress not having any big faces, its central leaders including party president Rahul Gandhi and general secretary Priyanka Gandhi are likely to be its most prominent faces in Bihar.

Key parties/players - the stakes

• BJP - with a maximum of 21 sitting MPs (and one died), the onus is on the saffron party to defend its fort, especially if it wants to return to power, depends on upper caste votes
• RJD - the single largest party in Bihar legislative assembly but sans Lalu, its strength remains to be seen, banks of the formidable Muslim-Yadav (MY) combination
• JD(U) - has won half the battle by extracting an equal number of seats from the BJP (17-17 each), Nitish Kumar's "image" and a section of backward caste votes is its main base
• Congress - emerged as a gainer in the 2015 alliance when it returned with 27 MLAs, hopes for Muslim and upper-caste votes
• LJP - largely a family-run show of the Paswans and depends on the Dalit (Dusadh) votes as well as those of alliance partners
• RLSP - with multiple exits, it is virtually a one-man show run by Upendra Kushwaha, aims to tap Koeri votes
• Also worth keeping a tab are Jitan Ram Manjhi (Mahadalit votes), Mukesh Sahni (Nishad votes), Sharad Yadav (Yadav votes and sway in Madhepura region), Rajesh Ranjan alias Pappu Yadav (Yadav votes and support in Kosi region) and Kanhaiya Kumar (former JNU-SU president from Left stronghold Begusarai)

Know the state

• 40 – No of LS constituencies. Bihar is the fourth largest electorate in the country after UP, Maharashtra and West Bengal.
• 7.06 crore voters – 3.73 crore male, 3.32 crore female and 2400 transgender. This is an increase of over 14 lakh from the last polls.
• 5.79 lakh – First timer voters in the state.
• 72,723 – Polling booths across the state; 10,000 more than last time.

Seven-phase polls

The seven-phase polls start from seats in South Bihar and virtually moves in an anti-clockwise direction covering seats from east and central to west.

Phase – Date – No. of seats

1 – April 11 – 4

Aurangabad, Gaya, Nawada, Jamui
(All Left-wing extremist affected areas that share border with Jharkhand)

2 – April 18 – 5

Kishanganj, Katihar, Purnia, Bhagalpur and Banka
(All share border with West Bengal and are dominated by Grand Alliance)

3 – April 23 – 5

Jhanjharpur, Supaul, Araria, Madhepura, Khagaria
(All bordering Nepal and some dominated by minority community & Oppn Alliance)

4 – April 29 – 5

Darbhanga, Ujiarpur, Samastipur, Begusarai, Munger
(all central Bihar constituencies with sitting ruling party MPs)

5 – May 6 – 5

Sitamarhi, Madhubani, Muzaffarpur, Saran, Hajipur
(Northeastern seats of Bihar dominated by ruling alliance)

6 – May 12 – 8

Valmiki Nagar, Paschim Champaran, Purvi Champaran, Sheohar, Vaishali, Gopalganj, Siwan, Maharajganj
(Borders Nepal & Eastern Uttar Pradesh with all sitting NDA MPs)

7 – May 19 – 8

Nalanda, Patna Sahib, Pataliputra, Ara, Buxar, Sasaram, Karakat, Jehanabad
(Borders UP and Jharkhand, capital Patna will be in focus)

Parties and their positions

Castes in Bihar (approx figures)

OBC/EBC – 51% (Yadav - 14%, Kurmis - 4%, Koeris - 7-8%)
Mahadalits+Dalits – 16% (Dusadh- 5%, Musahar - 2-3%)
Muslims – 16-17%
Forward castes – 15-16% (Bhumihar - 5-6%, Brahmins - 5-6%)
Adivasis (STs) – 1-2%
Others – Christians, Jains etc