New entrants liven up J&K's sensitive field

When the Election Commission on March 10 announced the poll schedule, the big takeaway was that despite several assurances, simultaneous polls had been taken off the table for Jammu & Kashmir. In fact, post the Pulwama massacre and subsequent escalation of tensions, the situation in south Kashmir was precarious enough for the EC to announce that the single Lok Sabha seat in Anantnag constituency would go to polls in three phases. However, most major political parties outraged that the decision to not conduct Assembly polls simultaneously — in light of the ongoing President's rule — was an attempt by the Centre to rule J&K by "remote control".

FAILED FRIENDSHIP

The 2014 parliament elections proved to be a watershed year for both PDP and BJP. Though they contested separately, they swept the polls winning three seats each and later forming an alliance to stake claim on the government. However, gone are the days when the election was a walkover for the former allies as they are pitted against a resurgent NC and battling to keep their vote bank intact.

After the alliance's collapse, the PDP has been in a downward spiral with senior leaders jumping ship. Five MLAs, including top ministers, have quit the PDP and either joined NC or separatist-turned-pro India leader Sajjad Lone's Peoples Conference (PC). Even PDP MP from Baramulla has decided not to seek re-election. PDP is yet to finalise the candidates for the five other seats. "I am fortunate enough to see that my ground workers have not left the party and are where they were. People come and people go. It is part of politics. So people keep on changing parties, especially when you lose power before elections," said PDP leader Mehbooba Mufti.

For BJP, the contest in 2019 is more challenging. In 2014, the voters in the Dogra belt consolidated in favour of BJP. This time, it is going to be a multi-pronged contest where Dr Jitendra Singh is pitted against two Rajput candidates in the constituency. One of them is Lal Singh, a BJP rebel who formed his Dogra Swabhiman Sangthan' (DSS) after quitting last year.

THE OUTLIERS

A resurgent NC is fancying its chance to win the parliamentary polls and avenge its humiliating 2014 defeat. So while the Congress wants a pact, the NC is not ready to give too much leverage to the national party. Talks over the seat-sharing arrangements hit a roadblock after Congress demanded that it contest one of the three Lok Sabha seats from the Kashmir Valley in exchange for one Jammu seat, which the NC is not amenable to.

Meanwhile, the Congress is also struggling to find a suitable candidate for the Udhampur constituency because Ghulam Nabi Azad is not contesting this time round. They have zeroed in on certain alternatives, but are waiting for the NC to make a move.

NEW PLAYERS

From 2010 IAS topper Shah Faesal's newly-formed J&K People's Movement to Lone's People's Conference, it will be the new players that make the field interesting. After becoming the first Kashmiri to top the civil services exams in 2010, he quit nine years later to protest the "unabated killings in Kashmir, lack of any sincere outreach from the Union government and the marginalisation of around 200 million Indian Muslims at the hands of Hindutva forces." On Sunday, he made history and launched the party that will contest the upcoming polls. "My party will have unique USP. Many people who believe in change, many youngsters who did not find any opportunities anywhere else, many people who did not associate with the existing party because of the legacy issues, I think those people will find a political anchor here", Faesal said.

Meanwhile, fresh from their victory in the local body polls that the NC and PDP boycotted, Lone-led PC has announced names of the candidates from three Lok Sabha seats in the valley. After throwing his weight behind the BJP last November when staking claim to form the government, he has now decided to go it alone.

"PC is the sole political alternative that could deliver the people of the State from the clutches of misrule, lies and betrayals. We committed to channelise the power of the common masses to bring about a change in the coming Parliament and Assembly elections," said Lone.

ANANTNAG CONUNDRUM

South Kashmir has been on the boil since July 2016 when Hizbul Mujahideen poster boy Burhan Wani was killed and the situation only deteriorated further when the byelections for the Anantnag constituency (left vacant by Mehbooba Mufti to become CM in 2016 after her father's death) had to be postponed in 2017, only to not be held ultimately. Even now, the constituency will vote in three phases to better tackle the security concerns.

MISSION KASHMIR

The decision not to hold Assembly polls alongside has stirred a hornet's nest. Instead, the EC has appointed three Special Central Observers — Dr Noor Mohammad, Vinod Zutshi and AS Gill — to assess the situation before holding Assembly polls. However, most parties have boycotted the meeting with the panel to protest the EC's decision.

It was reported that the EC observers have had detailed discussions with civil and police administration to assess the situation in the state that was placed under President's rule on December 20 and as per the law, Assembly polls should be held within six months.