Narendra Modi will lead the country, says Zee survey

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies are likely to emerge as the largest alliance in the 2014 elections, starting on April 7 and ending on May 12, though not with a clear working majority, according to a nationwide survey by Zee News. Narendra Modi emerges as the most popular prime ministerial candidate in the survey.

The BJP is poised to get up to 211 seats, with its influence spread almost evenly across the four regions of the country. The Congress is set to get between 107 and 114 seats and its allies a maximum of 20 seats. The Third Front and other regional parties are projected to win between 83 and 115 seats. About a 100 seats still remain fluid or undecided.

The findings, with a survey size of over 13,000 people across the country, thus makes the election a three-way split with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) on top.

To reach the half-way mark of 272 seats, the NDA will have to get about 50 seats from regional parties, not in their alliance. The sets the stage for various parties to switch sides and jump across ideological barriers after the election.

There is an interesting possibility of the Congress backing a Third Front government to reach a count of about 220 seats and then trying to get some more from the smaller parties to form a minority government, if the NDA is not happy or confident about its numbers.

This will mean a repetition of the scenario during the Delhi Assembly elections, where the BJP stood aside, even though it was the largest party, and the Congress supported the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) government. This scenario envisages the breaking-up of NDA by offering plump portfolios to parties like the Akali Dal.

The reverse of the scenario is also likely, with the NDA trying to wean regional parties. But this, in itself, will be a big let-down after the Modi build-up.

There is no indication yet of AAP making any major impact, though there is a huge undecided segment. Modi has emerged as the best prime ministerial choice, with 46 per cent of those surveyed endorsing him and Rahul Gandhi getting the backing of 21 per cent.

In Uttar Pradesh which elects 80 MPs, the BJP is projected to get 37-40 seats, while the Congress will lose half the 20 seats it won last time and settle between 7-9 seats.

In Maharashtra, the BJP - Shiv Sena alliance will win with around 20 seats. The Congress is expected to get 10-12 seats, and, its ally, the Nationalist Congress Party , 4-6.