NaMo effect: 10% jump in BJP fortune in satta market

Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi’s anointment as BJP’s prime ministerial candidate has set off frenzied activity among punters of Rajasthan. Convinced that his elevation would impact outcome of the next election, bookies are betting a fortune on Modi.

According to the satta market of Rajasthan, just a day after his anointment as the BJP’s top man for the top post, Modi has improved the party’s chances by 10 per cent.

According to the trade, BJP’s seats would increase 10% just because Modi has been elevated officially. Before, the announcement, the BJP was expected to be the largest party in the Lok Sabha with around 160 seats, which has now been increased to 175. Earlier, if a person had placed a bet of Re1 on 160 seats for the BJP, he would have received Re1 if his prediction was right. The same would happen now for 175 seats.

There is no change in seat estimation for the Congress, which is expected to win 120-125 seats. Again, a bet of Rs one on Congress would fetch same amount of money. “Rates are at par for both parties,” said a Bookie on condition to maintain anonymity.

It means that for the moment the betting market is not expecting Modi factor to take the BJP closer to 200 seats, which is crucially linked not just to Modi’s chances of becoming PM but also for the BJP to stitch up post poll alliances to be able to form the government.

Although, bookies say that it was too premature at this moment.

“Clear trend would emerge only after the parties declare their candidates,” the bookie said. Apart from that a lot of other factors like pre poll alliances, number of party rebels and economic and political situation might also change, which could change a party’s position at the last moment, he added.

In the forthcoming assembly elections in the state, Modi’s ascension has not changed his party’s fortune drastically. The BJP was clear winner without Narendra Modi. According to bookies, the BJP was expected to win 101 seats before Modi’s rally in Jaipur on Tuesday and his becoming PM candidate.

Now, the number of seats have gone up to 107-108 while the ruling Congress still at 73 seats. Once again rates for both the parties are same: Bet Re 1 and get Re 1 in return for the win.

“Modi factor will work only in general elections. It will impact marginally in assembly elections as there is no anti incumbency wave against Gehlot government,” the bookie said.