Met office mulls revision in monsoon dates for Gujarat

State weather office is currently mulling shifting the usual dates for the onset and withdrawal of monsoon in Gujarat.

It has been observed in the last few years that the onset of monsoon in the state has delayed to July 1 from June 15 and withdrawal too has been extended from September 15 to first week of October.

This phenomenon answers the question on many people’s lips: Why aren’t the rains going away yet? With this change in weather pattern being a recently observed trend, the weather office is trying to figure out the correct dates for monsoon in the state.

Dr. Kamaljit Ray, director of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Gujarat, said, “The extension of monsoon in Gujarat is expected to delay its withdrawal from September 15. Due to intense circular formation over the Bay of Bengal, the state is likely to get more rains around September 18 and 19. Withdrawal of the monsoon is likely to start during the first week of October.”

Met department officials are reviewing the average dates for the onset and withdrawal of monsoon of the last 30 years, starting from 1980. Though the usual date for withdrawal is September 15, it occurred between September 28 and October 6 in 2005. It happened between September 21 and October 3 in 2006, September 30 and October 2 in 2007, September 29 and October 11 in 2008 and September 28 and October 9 in 2009.

Ray said that the trend of extension of monsoon is likely to continue this year. None of the features characteristic of withdrawal of monsoon - cessation of rainfall activity for continuous 5 days, anti-cyclone formation in the lower troposphere, considerable reduction in moisture content and dry weather for 5 days - have surfaced till September 15 in the state. “On the contrary, more rains are expected to occur by September 18, and southwesterly winds which fetch rains persist,” added Ray. 

The central weather office in New Delhi also confirmed that it was reviewing the changing monsoon pattern in the country and plans to announce new trends and dates for various regions, including Gujarat. Sources in the central weather office said that they felt the need to review the monsoon pattern as the current predictions, made on the basis of studies during 1900-1980, often fall short of being accurate.