PM Modi front runner, as per 12 of 14 exit polls; But pollsters have gone terribly wrong, as in '04; Split mandate means all hell breaks loose
Narendra Modi
BJP's best bet
If the exit polls are to be believed, Narendra Modi will be back as the Prime Minister for a second term. Twelve of 14 exit polls have predicted clear majority to the NDA with BJP having numbers to form government on its own. This means people's faith in Brand Modi remains intact despite irritants like demonetization and unemployment and that nationalist pitch post Balakot airstrikes has worked in its favour. Full marks to BJP's vote aggregator Amit Shah too for not letting ego get in the way while stitching alliances with partners, even if it meant forfeiting a few seats.
Rahul Gandhi
Nyay champion
While the exit polls do not offer any solace to the Congress president, Rahul Gandhi can take respite in the fact that such polls often go wrong as was the case in 2004. If the prophecy does not hold true and the balance of power favours Congress in a fractured mandate, the credit will go to Gandhi. It would mean his persistent campaigns against Modi on Rafale, DeMo, GST, agrarian distress and unemployment, and buzzword of Nyay managed to strike a chord with the voters. A figure of 120-plus seats can make him a contender for the top post.
Mayawati
All about caste
The BSP supremo, who sensed quite early that this election would decide her existence as a politician, craftily and against all odds, stitched an alliance with arch-rival Samajwadi Party. The caste combination of Mahagathbandhan is expected to halt BJP's advance in UP, though even exit polls are not sure by how much. Mayawati was hellbent on winning back her vote bank, attacking both Congress and BJP. If exit polls go awfully wrong and give a fractured mandate with gains for UP alliance, Mayawati has a good chance to give a shot to top post.
Mamata Banerjee
Bengal warhorse
One of the most formidable adversaries of PM Modi, Trinamool chief Mamata Banerjee, perhaps, fought the toughest elections of her life this time. She took on Modi-Shah campaign blitzkrieg and matched them rally for rally. The exit polls predict mixed results for her party – from a high of 32 seats to a low of 18. Mamata's stature may grow several notches up if she manages to check BJP's advance and may catapult her from regional politics to national one. With a bagful of seats in a fractured mandate, she may become hot favourite for PM's post.
The Dark Horse
Wild-card entry
Indian elections are replete with history of throwing up unexpected results and PMs as happened in 1977 when Janata Party trumped Congress and in a span of a little over two years gave five Prime Ministers. The scenario repeated in 1989 when National Front government gave India two PMs during 1989-91 and again during 1996-98 in HD Deve Gowda and IK Gujral. A similar scenario yet again could usher in a dark horse in Andhra CM Chandrababu Naidu or Telangana CM Chandrasekhar Rao who have been at the forefront in forging alliances.
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 "Narendra Modi, Mamata Banerjee, Rahul Gandhi, Mayawati")
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