Odisha elections 2019: No more Naveen, Patnaik can't be lotus eater

Politics in Odisha, where Lok Sabha elections will be held along with Assembly elections, is no less interesting. Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik is seeking a fifth term after ruling the state for an uninterrupted 19 long years. Ever since Patnaik took the reins of the state in 2000, he swept every election with a clear majority. But this time around, a strong anti-incumbency wave is surging against Patnaik and his Biju Janata Dal (BJD).

High stakes for parties

For years, Naveen Patnaik has cultivated a terrific vote bank through doles. What worked to Patnaik's advantage was the absence of a strong challenger from the opposition camp. This time, in a clean break from Naveen Patnaik era, Union Petroleum Minister Dharmendra Pradhan has emerged as the palpable face of the BJP to take Patnaik head on. Undoubtedly, Pradhan is the man who is fueling the BJP's growth in Odisha by giving a push to party's Sangathan (organisation), Sangharsh (fight for the cause) and Samrachana (cohesiveness).

Odisha features prominently in BJP's scheme of things. So far the eastern state is one of the unconquered territories for the saffron party. During the 2014 elections, the BJP had won one of the 21 Lok Sabha seats and 10 of 147 Assembly constituencies in Odisha, while the BJD had won 20 Lok Sabha seats and 117 Assembly constituencies.

But things have changed since then. The BJP has revived its infrastructure and cadre base massively in the last five years. With a renewed hope and new vigour, the saffron party is hoping to win at least 12 of the 21 Lok Sabha constituencies and achieving a simple majority in the Assembly elections.

For the first time in the electoral history of Odisha, the state is witnessing a staggered four-phase election. The Election Commission has taken into consideration the Left-wing extremism and the movement of Central security forces. But the spread-out schedule could help BJP organise more rallies of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the state which could work to the saffron party's advantage, political observers say.

Even as some political analysts suggest Odisha will witness a three-cornered contest between BJD, BJP and Congress, the elections to the eastern state are turning into a straight two-way fight between Modi-led BJP and Naveen Patnaik's BJD.

In 2014 elections, Congress could not win a single Lok Sabha seat and had to settle for 16 Assembly seats. In 2017 panchayat elections, BJP succeeded not only in replacing Congress as the main opposition but also made a giant stride in Odisha politics by giving BJD a run for its money. This is not to dispute that Congress still enjoys some loyal base in a few pockets of the state. After mining baron Niranjan Patnaik became the PCC chief, the party is desperately trying to mine its lost ground.

(Crowd at a rally addressed by PM Modi and Dharmendra Pradhan)

Poll issues

Elections are fought over issues and Odisha has a multitude of them. Rampant corruption and absence of law and order are major issues the opposition is raking up. The crime graph is on the rise in the last several years, and according to a National Crime Record Bureau (NCRB) report, Odisha has the third highest rate of crimes against women in the country.

• FARM SECTOR: The plight of the farmers has increased manifold even as the BJD government launched Krushak Assistance for Livelihood and income Augmentation (KALIA) scheme. The state government has admitted on floor of Assembly that 227 farmers have committed suicide in the last five years.
• SCAMS GALORE: A series of macabre scams during the Naveen Patnaik rule – Chit fund scam, mining scam, rural jobs scam, coal scam, land scam and dal scam – have hit the state hard. Shah Commission had pegged the Odisha mining scam at Rs 60,000 crore. Odisha chapter of chit fund scam is much bigger than that of West Bengal.
• AILING HEALTH: State's health sector is in chaos. There is rising unemployment. And, there is a massive discontentment among the teachers against the Patnaik govt.
• BABUS' COTERIE: A new culture of percentage commission (PC) has developed in the last several years. Those in the know of Odisha politics won't dispute the fact that CM Patnaik runs his government through a coterie of trusted bureaucrats. All these issues are taking the shape of a strong anti-incumbency against the ruling BJD.

Even as the BJD continues to accuse the BJP-led centre of apathy despite series of Central government schemes for the state, the Patnaik government is facing serious allegations of creating hurdles for the Centre's development schemes meant for Odisha.

BJP's growth agenda

Odisha has become the laboratory for Modi government's welfare policies. The Modi government considers Odisha as a gateway to its 'Mission Purvadoya' (development of the East). The Centre has launched a slew of development projects related to energy, infrastructure and education in the last five years.

The state has recorded a new high in the energy sector with an estimated Rs 1.40 lakh-crore investments proposed under various oil and gas projects in the state. Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY) is a ground-breaking success in Odisha. Under PMUY a total of 37.16 lakh LPG connections were given in Odisha ever since the launch of the flagship scheme. Similarly, the length of national highways in the state has more than doubled in the last five years.

Union Petroleum Minister Dharmendra Pradhan is widely seen as a facilitator for the Modi government's development projects for Odisha. With Pradhan leading the BJP's campaign in the state from the front, the saffron party is confident of winning the elections riding on the development wave.

Advantage BJP?

What has given the BJP campaign an edge is the recent induction of former Kendrapada MP Baijayant Panda. Panda, one of the founders of the BJD, is now working overtime to checkmate Patnaik. Panda, who has been appointed the national vice-president of BJP, will contest from the politically significant Kendrapada Lok Sabha constituency where he had won consecutively – in 2009 and 2014.

Damodar Rout, a Biju legacy leader, who joined the BJP recently has been appointed as the convener of BJP Campaign Committee. Rout, a six-time MLA, who had served as a minister in all four governments headed by Naveen Patnaik said, "I will ensure the corrupt BJD govt's ouster."

Recently, sitting Nabarangpur MP and popular tribal leader Balabhadra Majhi left the BJD and joined the BJP. Four sitting BJD MLAs have joined the BJP giving the party's campaign a further boost. There are more who could follow the suit.

Meanwhile, BJP insiders said Utkal Bharat president Kharbela Swain – a popular MP in 14th Lok Sabha – will contest on BJP's Lotus symbol.

Naveen's Waterloo?

2019 polls are turning out to be the toughest election in Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik's political career. Political observers say this time around containing rebels won't be an easy task for Patnaik. BJD insiders further suggest Patnaik's move to reserve 33 per cent seats for women in Lok Sabha elections may hurt the party's prospect. Patnaik has virtually admitted the "anti-incumbency" while announcing the party's first list. Of the nine Lok Sabha seats announced, BJD has dropped eight sitting MPs. In a first, Patnaik is contesting from two Assembly seats in state.