Lok Sabha Election 2019: Capital fight for anti-BJP space

The focus has shifted to the national capital where all seven Lok Sabha constituencies will go to polls in the sixth phase on May 12. After taking the anti-BJP 'alliance debate' online on Twitter, both the Congress and AAP finally decided to go alone.

While the Congress wanted the proposed alliance to be restricted to Delhi, the AAP wanted it to be extended to Haryana, Punjab and Goa, which the Congress could not agree. Now both the parties are fighting for the same anti-BJP space in the national capital.

In 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Modi wave had helped BJP win all the seven Lok Sabha seats. Despite securing 32.90 % vote share, the AAP failed to open its account against BJP that topped the charts with 46.40 % of the popular votes. The Congress was relegated to the third spot with a mere 15.10 % vote share.

But in 2015 Assembly polls, AAP surprised everyone by coming from behind and making almost a clean sweep by bagging 67 out of the 70 seats with a staggering vote share of 54.3 %. While the BJP won 32.2 votes it managed to win just three seats, the Congress drew nought with only 9.7 % votes.

In 2013 Assembly elections, the BJP had won 31 % of the popular votes, while the AAP and the Congress had secured 28 % and 8 % vote share respectively.

What makes BJP a formidable party in Delhi is that its vote share has remained constant over the last two Assembly elections while it went up by many notches in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections because of the Modi wave.

An analysis of vote share figures of the last three elections shows that the AAP resurgence was mainly due to eating into the Congress's vote bank. This time the real fight is between the AAP and the Congress. While the Congress is trying to win back the vote share it has lost, the AAP is trying too hard to cling on it and not let it go to the BJP or Congress.

The chances of Congress getting gnawing into the AAP's votes to become a force again looks rather remote as AAP has done well in areas that were traditional voters of Congress. If the Congress fails to get back its vote share, the anti-BJP voters are expected to split between the Congress and the AAP, which will benefit the BJP.

Prof Ujjwal K Chowdhury, a political commentator, however, feels AAP dominates in Delhi in anti-BJP space, while the Congress stands nowhere. "There will be a rare consolidation of Muslims, Dalits and Sikh votes in Delhi and the AAP will be benefitted out of it," he said.

The Modi wave is definitely at work in Delhi this time around, but it seems difficult for the BJP to wrest all the seven seats like it did in 2014. A major challenge for the BJP is in East Delhi against AAP candidate Atishi Singh where it has put up rather a novice candidate in Gautam Gambhir. The other challenge is in Northeast Delhi, where former chief minister Sheila Dikshit of Congress is in the fight against Manoj Tiwari.

BJP VS AAP

• In 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Modi wave had helped BJP win all the seven Lok Sabha seats. 
   
• But in 2015 Assembly polls, AAP surprised everyone by making almost a clean sweep.