Lok Sabha Election 2019: Andhra’s king could be Delhi’s kingmaker

On May 23 when the elections results will be declared, irrespective of who wins, alliances will rule big. Realising this, the BJP has aggressively pursued its regional partners, making amends by conceding ground. But on the other hand, Congress befuddled many with its slow pace of an alliance. And yet, there remains one state where, without an alliance, Rahul Gandhi will depend heavily for deliverance: Andhra Pradesh.

The erstwhile undivided Andhra Pradesh has long been a Congress stronghold. With 42 seats in the Lok Sabha, the Congress won 29 seats in 2004 LS polls which rose to 33 seats in 2009. The bifurcation of the state in 2014 by the Congress president Sonia Gandhi into Telangana and Andhra Pradesh brought an end to that reign. The overriding sentiment in the state immediately turned against the Congress. The demise of CM YS Rajasekhara Reddy in a chopper mishap in 2009, too led to a change in the state’s political landscape. 

A lot of water has flown through the Godavari since. And now, in 2019, with the upcoming parliamentary as well as assembly elections in the state being held simultaneously, the players are varied, and the issues well laid out. 

TDP’s slipping numbers

Poll pundits have indicated that the ruling TDP had been slipping in numbers since it formed a majority government in the state in 2014. Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu contested the Lok Sabha polls in 2014 as part of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), winning 15 of the 25 seats. As part of the poll promises made by PM Narendra Modi during the poll campaign was to accord Andhra Pradesh with special status to help with the reorganisation of the state. Due to the bifurcation of the state, Telangana retained Hyderabad as well as the satellite city of Cyberabad; Naidu is credited in developing these cities. 

That wronged feeling

The underlying sentiment in Andhra after the bifurcation was that the state has been wronged, as most of its resources went to Telangana.

Four years in, when the Modi-led NDA government in the Centre did not give the state the special status, Chandrababu Naidu called off the alliance, prompting union ministers Ashok Gajapathi Raju and YS Chowdary to resign from the Centre. The speculation was that Naidu had an inkling of the BJP hand in the growing strength of the Jaganmohan Reddy-led YSR Congress.

“The BJP had a troubled mind from the beginning and were delaying funds to Andhra Pradesh. After the last budget, I thought that it was a cruel injustice to Andhra. They dodged us on the issue on deficit finance and said the state is eligible for Rs 4,000 crore out of Rs 60,000 crore. We submitted the utility certificates and the PM asked them to not release after which, they took back the money from the state’s account. The BJP has badly betrayed the people of Andhra, and that is why I will have to fight them,” Naidu had told DNA in an interview in May last year, just after breaking away from the NDA.

Soon after, he started working in his state, focussing primarily on welfare schemes. Naidu also announced the TDP joining the Opposition coalition, holding meetings in Delhi time and again. In the past, he had been one of the prime architects of the 1996 coalition and had been instrumental in bringing to power HD Deve Gowda and IK Gujral as the prime ministers of the state.

Political analyst from the state C Narasimha Rao says Naidu’s welfare schemes have proved to be very popular. “While Jagan gained in strength earlier, in the last few months, a churn has taken place,” says Rao.

YSRC & Jagan factor

After a failed stint with the Congress party, Jaganmohan Reddy left after the death of his father, YSR Reddy, to form the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP). The sympathy vote on his side, his party won eight seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. He had to go to jail on corruption charges, and once he was out, he undertook a padayatra across the state. This has garnered him a lot of goodwill and votes among the state’s minorities. The anti-incumbency vote as well first-time voters are some of his key voter-base. Yet, in the four districts of the Rayalaseema region, Jagan has lost some key Reddy leaders to the TDP. These include former union minister Kotla Vijaya Sekhar Reddy, Krishna Kumar Reddy, Adi Narayan Reddy, and Gaur Venkat Reddy. While apart from Chittoor, the TDP had not much of a presence in the Rayalaseema region, the movement of these leaders could spell trouble for Jagan in his home turf.

“What will work against Jagan, apart from the slow rise of the Pawan Kalyan-led Jana Sena is that he has not criticised PM Modi much in his speeches with regards to the special status issue, making people think if he is getting help from the BJP,” said Rao. What also does not help matters for him is the announcement of a coalition.

Anti-incumbency votes

The Pawan Kalyan led Jana Sena has been growing in strength in the last few months crucially. With a presence in East and West Godavari districts, as well as Visakhapatnam, Jana Seat has an appeal among the state’s young first-time voters. The party is likely to eat away in YSRCP’s anti-incumbency as well as anti-TDP votes. Kalyan’s speeches have been getting a great response. And yet, the Jana Sena’s primary function this Lok Sabha elections will be to cut away YSRCP’s votes.

Dwindling mainstream

The national parties -- BJP as well as the Congress -- have little or no presence in the state. The BJP has not yet managed to break into the state, winning only two Lok Sabha seats in the last elections. As for the Congress, the bifurcation cost them dearly, with most leaders moving to either the TDP or the YSRCP. Even after the Congress has fielded some key leaders in the Lok Sabha elections, sources within the party said that some will in all likelihood withdraw their tickets. The grand old party has entered into a tactical alliance with the TDP, fighting friendly matches in some areas and cutting into YSRCP’s votes in some other areas.