Karnataka Bypolls: How many seats BJP needs to win to retain majority in 224-member assembly?

With the Supreme Court verdict out on the pleas of 17 Karnataka MLAs disqualified by Speaker in July, the Election Commission's plan to hold bypolls to the 15 assembly seats on December 5 is on track. With most of the disqualified MLAs likely to contest on the BJP ticket, it is crucial for the ruling party to win most of the seats to retain its already thin majority in the 224-member Karnataka assembly.

Voting for 15 assembly seats will take place on December 5 and votes will be counted on December 9 for the by-elections. Out of the 17 constituencies that fell vacant, by-polls for 15 seats were announced by EC on September 21. 

After the fall of the HD Kumaraswamy government in July this year, BJP's BS Yediyurappa formed the government with the help of his party's 105 MLAs and one Independent lesgilator. After 17 members including 13 from the Congress, 3 from the JD(S), and an Independent had rebelled against the Kumaraswamy government and subsequently resigned, the total strength of the house was brought down to 207, thus bringing down the majority mark to 104. 

After the results of bypolls to 15 assembly seats is declared, the strength of the house will again reach 222 and the BJP would need 112 MLAs to retain its majority. The BJP would only be able to keep the numbers in its favour if it is able to get at least six of the 15 seats currently under grab. 

Congress, which is the second-largest party with 67 MLAs, has most to lose in these elections. "We have to see to that party wins all the 15 seats," Karnataka Congress chief Dinesh Gundu Rao said on Wednesday. 

Meanwhile, Yediyurappa has said all disqualified MLAs will be joining the BJP on November 14. The BJP is yet to announce candidates for the assembly bypolls. 

Yediyurappa had in September said the BJP would field all the disqualified MLAs in the byelections and he had the approval of party president Amit Shah for the 

The bypolls to 15 assembly seats were earlier scheduled for October 21 but were postponed to December 5 as the matter was pending in the top court.

Assembly speaker KR Ramesh had disqualified 17 MLAs after they rebelled against the then Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy in July.

The leaders were disqualified by the Speaker, stating that they have "incurred disqualification under the Tenth Schedule of the Constitution (anti-defection law) and the disqualification would last till the end of the term of the Assembly May 23, 2023."

Prominent among the Congress MLAs who were disqualified were MTB Nagaraj, K Sudhakar, Munirathna, Shrimant Patil, Byrathi Basavaraj.

The Supreme Court in its order on Wednesday upheld the disqualification but refused said they were free to contest the elections.