June national rain average deficient by 42%: Forecast agency

The national cumulative average of rainfall in June is deficient by a whopping 42%, making it only the 12th instance in the past 113 years when rain shortfall was over 30% in the month, according to a private forecasting agency.

States like Gujarat and Rajasthan have over 80% of deficient rain. The respite is that monsoon is likely to revive in the first week of July and rain is expected in the national capital and northwest plains from July 5, Skymet, a private forecasting agency, added.

"As of now, the national cumulative average monsoon rain is deficient by a whopping 42%, making it only the 12th instance in last 113 years when rainfall deficit has been over 30% in the month," Skymet said.

"Gujarat is reeling under extreme dry weather conditions and the deficit here has mounted to 88 from 78% till June 17. Similarly, even Rajasthan is facing a huge deficit," it said. "The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) continues to pass through Veraval, Surat, Nashik, Wasim, Damoh and Sultanpur. The western arm, passing through Veraval, Surat and Nasik has been stagnant for the 13th consecutive day."

According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), the rainfall in the country has made marginal progress as compared to last week. It received 74.4 mm of rainfall from June 1 to June 25, as compared to normal precipitation of 124.5 mm, which is 40% less.

The IMD says the rainfall recorded from June 1 to June 18 in the country was 45% less that what was expected in its first spell. It received 43.4 mm of rainfall as compared to normal rain of 78.8 mm from June 1 to June 17.

Central and northwest India continued to receive less rainfall from June 1 to June 25. Northwest India received 25.0 mm of rainfall as compared to normal rainfall of 48.3, which is 48% less while central India received 51.4 mm as compared to normal rainfall of 118.9 mm, which is 57% less.

The MET department has also said that the monsoon will revive in the first week of July. "A fresh western disturbance would affect northwest India in the beginning of July. We are expecting mild interaction of monsoon and western disturbance and this will help in advancement of monsoon in Northern Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu division," BP Yadav, Director, IMD.

According to Skymet's Meteorology Division in India, cumulative rain deficit has been increasing in Konkan and Goa, which at present stands at 56% short of monsoon rain. Rain deficiency in coastal Karnataka is 35% and Kerala about 24% but the present weather system could mitigate this deficit rain to some extent.

Some good news for the west coast is a fresh surge in the Arabian Sea that could bring monsoon showers along the coastline by July 1. However, south, east and northeast India have received better rainfall as compared to other parts of the region.

"The Southern Peninsula received 90.3 mm of rainfall as compared to normal rainfall of 126.0 mm, which is 28% less while the East and northeast India received 198.8 mm of rainfall as compared to normal rainfall of 281.3 mm, 29% less," the IMD said.

The cyclonic circulation near the coastal parts of Odisha and Andhra Pradesh will continue to bring good monsoon rain over Odisha and Andhra Pradesh and will engulf interiors of Telangana, south Odisha, Telangana and Vidarbha.