IMD predicts southwest monsoon rainfall to be normal this year

On Thursday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) stated that the southwest monsoon rainfall this year will most likely be normal which is quantitatively 99 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).

However, the IMD also said that there has been a slight reduction in a slight reduction in the new normal data for the whole country. The new normal that was recorded between June to September for the period 1971-2020 is 87 cm which is also the new normal. 

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Southwest Monsoon Seasonal (July to September ) rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be normal which is 96 to 104% of the Long Period Average (LPA), predicted Indian Meteorological Department in its April 14 release for the 2022 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall

— ANI (@ANI) April 15, 2022

Addressing the media, IMD Director General, Meteorology, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said, "Normal to above normal seasonal rainfall most likely over many areas of the northern peninsula and central India, along foothills of the Himalayas and some parts of northwest India, below normal rainfall is likely over many parts of northeast India, some parts of northwest India and southern parts of the South Peninsula."

He further added, "This decrease is part of natural multi-decadal epochal variability of dry and wet epochs of all India rainfall. Presently it is a dry epoch, which started in the decade 1971-80. The decadal average of all India SW monsoon rainfall for the decade 2011-20 is (-) 3.8 per cent from the long-term mean. The next decade i.e. 2021-30 will come close to neutral and will likely enter in the wet epoch from the decade 2031-40."

IMD will soon issue another forecast for the second stage in the last week of May that will likely include the date of the arrival of the monsoon in Kerala.