The BJP is hoping to break records in both the states while the Congress is attempting to win Himachal Pradesh back and stay as opposition in Gujarat.
Counting was underway for the Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh Assembly Elections 2022 on Thursday (December 8). The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is the ruling party in both the states. The other two parties in major contention are the Congress (INC) and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).
The BJP is hoping to break records in both the states while the Congress is attempting to win Himachal Pradesh back and continue as opposition in Gujarat. The AAP will be happy if it gets to play the spoilsport in both the elections and emerge a major influencer in the next government.
Magic numbers for Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat
The Himachal Pradesh Assembly consists of 68 seats. Hence, 35 is the magic number for any party to stake a claim to form the government. The BJP won 44 seats last time. The Congress formed a government with 36 in the previous election.
In the 182-member Gujarat Assembly, the half-way mark is crossed with 91 seats. The BJP saw a significant drop in its numbers from 115 to 99. It will be hoping to better the tally this time as it looks to equal CPIM’s seven back-to-back terms in one state.
Best and worst case scenarios for major parties
The BJP will want to bag a massive win in Gujarat and break the one-term jinx of the Himachal Pradesh Assembly Elections. If the results come on the lines of the exit polls (BJP 117-151), the BJP may break its Gujarat elections record of 127 seats in 2002. A win will make it replicate CPIM’s feat in West Bengal where the left party ruled for 34 years. The all-time record in Gujarat is 149 by the Congress in 1985. The worst outcome for the BJP could be a similar showing in Gujarat in 2917 and losing power in Himachal Pradesh.
For the Congress, Himachal Pradesh holds the key to resurgence in the north. A win in the hill state will mean that Congress will have governments in three states alongside Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. However, it would also hope to keep its position as the main opposition in Gujarat, wary of AAP eating away at its seats. For Congress in Gujarat, analysts feel getting 40-50 seats will be a good outing. A second decent scenario for the Congress will be winning Himachal Pradesh and losing badly in Gujarat. While it would mean a decent outing, Congress would also be ceding the Gujarat opposition to AAP, which will downgrade its influence in the opposition circles.
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 "Gujarat Assembly Election 2022")
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