Gujarat Elections 2022: 5% lower voter turnout in first phase; analysing whom will this benefit or hurt on December 8

The final voter turnout in the first phase of Gujarat Assembly elections covering 89 seats across 19 districts of Saurashtra-Kutch and southern regions stands at 63.14 per cent. This is 5 per cent less than first phase polling on the same seats in 2017 and 9 per cent less than 2012. The dip in voter turnout has already to speculations and theories as to who will benefit from it and whose prospects will take a hit on December 8 when votes are counted. 

In the 2017 Gujarat Assembly polls, the voter turnout in first phase was over 68 per cent whereas in 2012, it was over 72 per cent. Several factors are being cited for this drop in turnout, majorly being a lack of enthusiasm amongst voters with the polling being held on a weekday, though it was a public holiday. 

In 1985, a 0.5 per cent rise in voter turnout led to another term for the then Indian National Congress. However, in 1990, a 3.4 per cent rise in turnout resulted in a defeat for the Congress, which was reduced to just 33 seats. The BJP won 67 seats while the Janata Dal (Gujarat) bagged 70 seats. 

In the 1995 Assembly polls, the voter turnout saw a rise of 13 percentage points and the BJP registered a massive win with its seat tally jumping to 121. The Congress could manage only 45 seats back then. 

The 1998 elections saw a more than five per cent drop in voter participation. The BJP won a majority of seats, and it happened despite a drop in the turnout. 

The precedents clearly show that neither a higher turnout indicate anti-incumbency nor a lower turnout indicate pro-incumbency. The only conclusion that can be derived from a dip in voter turnout is that the electoral process failed to fill enthusiasm in the voters. 

Eyeing another victory, the BJP is dismissing any concerns over the drop in voter turnout, saying that the lower turnout shows there is no anti-incumbency. News18 quoted a senior BJP leader saying that the party’s voters did come out to vote and that it might have been Congress voters who did not exercise their franchise, seeing the dull campaign by the opposition party. 

The Congress, on the other hand, asserts that when the turnout fell from 72 per cent in 2012 to 68 per cent in first phase of 2017 polls, BJP’s seat share dropped from 63 to 48 while the Congress gained 16 seats. The opposition party claims that BJP voters did not step out due to anger against the ruling party. 

In the 2017 election, out of these 89 seats, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had won 48, Congress 40, while one seat was bagged by an independent candidate.

The BJP, which has ruled the state for 27 years, is striving to remain at the helm for the seventh term in a row. If it succeeds, it will equal the record of the Left Front government which won West Bengal elections for seven consecutive terms till 2011.

At the same time, the party faces competition not just from its traditional rival Congress, but also the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which has positioned itself as the main contender for the party and is contesting on all but one seat.

Apart from the BJP, Congress and AAP, 36 other political outfits, including the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Samajwadi Party (SP), Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) and Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP) also fielded candidates in various seats.