Good News for Delhi-NCR residents: National Capital's air quality improves, may worsen after...

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted that as the winter chill sets in, the air quality in the national capital is likely to deteriorate from Wednesday. The Air Quality Index (AQI) is anticipated to be in the "moderate" category on Monday and Tuesday, but is expected to fall into the "poor" category for six days, starting Wednesday.

The city's air quality improved on Sunday, a day after it almost reached the "poor" category. The average AQI was 167 (moderate), an improvement from 199 on Saturday, thanks to steady winds blowing at 10–15 kmph.

However, stubble burning's contribution to Delhi's pollution increased slightly to 0.8% from 0.4% the last day, according to the Centre’s Decision Support System (DSS). The Early Warning System (EWS) under the Ministry of Earth Sciences predicts that the air quality will remain "moderate" from October 13–14, turn "poor" on October 15, and stay that way for about a week.

IMD prediction

“The air quality is very likely to be in the Moderate category from 13.10.2025 to 14.10.2025. The air quality is very likely to be in the Poor category on 15.10.2025. The outlook for the subsequent 6 Days: The air quality is likely to be in the Poor category," the IMD said in its bulletin.

According to Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) data, the last time the capital recorded "poor" air quality was on June 11, with an AQI of 245. Since then, Delhi has experienced 123 days of cleaner air — 77 "satisfactory" and 46 "moderate" days.

Experts note that air quality usually declines in October due to the monsoon's retreat, lower temperatures, and the onset of stubble burning and festive fireworks. Slower winds and cooler conditions lead to "inversion," which traps pollutants near the surface. Additionally, northwesterly winds carry smoke from Punjab and Haryana, with the peak impact around early November.

The Decision Support System (DSS) indicated that vehicles were the largest contributors to PM2.5 levels on Sunday (19.8%), followed by emissions from Sonipat (9.2%) and Jhajjar (5.1%). Farm fires are relatively low this year, with Punjab reporting 116 cases and Haryana 11 between September 15 and October 11, compared to 533 and 280 cases, respectively, during the same period last year.

Delhi's weather on Sunday saw a high of 31.5°C and a low of 19.6°C. The IMD predicts clear skies and cool northwesterly winds, with maximum temperatures expected to reach 34°C by Wednesday. Environment Minister Manjinder Singh Sirsa noted a significant improvement in air quality, with Delhi experiencing 199 days of AQI below 200 this year, almost double the figure from 2016.