GDP estimates point towards V-shaped recovery: Govt

The Finance Ministry on Thursday stated that a continued resurgence in economic activity in the second half of the current fiscal point towards a post-lockdown sustained V-shaped recovery based on GDP estimates.

"The AE of 2020-21 reflect continued resurgence in economic activity in Q3 and Q4 which would enable the Indian economy to end the year with a contraction of 7.7 percent," it said in a statement.

The continuous quarter-on-quarter growth endorses the strength of economic fundamentals of the country to sustain a post-lockdown V-shaped recovery, it added.

"The relatively more manageable pandemic situation in the country as compared to advanced nations has further added momentum to the economic recovery," the ministry added.

It is to be noted that India`s First Advance Estimate of national income on Thursday showed a contraction of 7.7 percent in real GDP for FY 21. On a year-on-year basis, Asia`s third-largest economy had grown by 4.2 percent in 2019-20."Real GDP or GDP at Constant Prices (2011-12) in the year 2020-21 is likely to attain a level of Rs 134.40 lakh crore, as against the provisional estimate of GDP for the year 2019-20 of Rs 145.66 lakh crore, released on May 31, 2020," the First Advance Estimates of National Income for financial year 2020-21 said.

"The growth in real GDP during 2020-21 is estimated at -7.7 percent as compared to the growth rate of 4.2 percent in 2019-20," it added.

As per the estimate, real GVA at basic prices is estimated at Rs 123.39 lakh crore in 2020-21, as against Rs 133.01 lakh crore in 2019-20, showing a contraction of 7.2 percent.

"With a view to contain the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic, certain restrictions were imposed from March 25, 2020. Though the restrictions have been gradually lifted, there has been an impact on the economic activities as well as on the data collection mechanisms," the National Statistical Office (NSO) said.

India`s First Advance Estimate of national income on Thursday showed a contraction of 7.7 percent in real GDP for FY 21. On a year-on-year basis, Asia`s third-largest economy had grown by 4.2 percent in 2019-20."Real GDP or GDP at Constant Prices (2011-12) in the year 2020-21 is likely to attain a level of Rs 134.40 lakh crore, as against the provisional estimate of GDP for the year 2019-20 of Rs 145.66 lakh crore, released on May 31, 2020," the First Advance Estimates of National Income for financial year 2020-21 said.

"The growth in real GDP during 2020-21 is estimated at -7.7 percent as compared to the growth rate of 4.2 percent in 2019-20," it added.

As per the estimate, real GVA at basic prices is estimated at Rs 123.39 lakh crore in 2020-21, as against Rs 133.01 lakh crore in 2019-20, showing a contraction of 7.2 per cent.

"With a view to contain the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic, certain restrictions were imposed from March 25, 2020. Though the restrictions have been gradually lifted, there has been an impact on the economic activities as well as on the data collection mechanisms," the National Statistical Office (NSO) said.

In terms of sectors, the estimates showed that GVA at basic prices by economic activity at 2011-12 prices showed a contraction in trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting; financial, real estate and professional services; and public administration, defence and other services at (-)21.4 percent, (-)0.8 percent and (-)3.7 percent, respectively.

The growth in agriculture, forestry, and fishing; mining and quarrying; manufacturing and construction is estimated to be 3.4 percent, (-)12.4 percent, (-)9.4 percent and (-)12.6 percent, respectively.

In terms of sectors, the estimates showed that GVA at basic prices by economic activity at 2011-12 prices showed a contraction in trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting; financial, real estate and professional services; and public administration, defence and other services at (-)21.4 percent, (-)0.8 percent and (-)3.7 percent, respectively.

The growth in agriculture, forestry, and fishing; mining and quarrying; manufacturing and construction is estimated to be 3.4 percent, (-)12.4 percent, (-)9.4 percent and (-)12.6 percent, respectively.