Expert analysis: Can Bharat Jodo Yatra solve Congress' long-standing issues, boost Rahul Gandhi's image?

The Congress party's Bharat Jodo Yatra, spearheaded by Rahul Gandhi, culminated today at the Pradesh Congress Committee (PCC) headquarters near Srinagar's Lal Chowk. Gandhi, senior politicians and thousands of Congress supporters traversed 12 states, two Union territories and 4,000 kilometers in a titanic exercise aimed at revitalising the party's demoralised workers. Another possible reason behind the yatra was that the Congress strategists wanted to bolster Rahul Gandhi's image that had been battered by the BJP juggernaut on social media. Gandhi addressed 12 public meetings, 100 corner meetings, 13 press conferences where he took sharp jibes at Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Amit Shah and their policies. Scores of anti-BJP politicians, actors, bureaucrats and military honchos rubbed shoulders with Gandhi, indicating support for the Congress' cause. The gigantic show of strength, however, won't help much if the Congress doesn't show alacrity in solving long-standing issues, says political expert Rasheed Kidwai.

What do you think the impact of the yatra will be on the prospects of Congress in 2024 General Elections?

I think going by Rahul Gandhi's track record... You see, he is unlike others, he is a very diligent, very hardworking,  very focused person, but he tends to reach very early or late. When he came into politics, he tried to reform the Congress when UPA was in power. He tried to democratize the Youth Congress, NSUI, and sought the help of former election commissioners. Then he turned reformist when he tore off that infamous ordinance. So, he wanted transparency and clean politics, but that went in favour of AAP as Arvind Kejriwal now represents that kind of political legacy. So Rahul has tried various things. A lot of Rahul Gandhi's activities (during Bharat Jodo Yatra), like giving interviews, talking to YouTubers etc -- all this has been done by Mr Modi in 2019 and so. So I don't know how much impact it will have.

Now the problem is, today, the Yatra is going over and elections are 14-15 months away. It is very difficult to sustain (the political momentum). This is because a lot of questions remained unanswered. Who wins in Karnataka? What happens in Rajasthan? There are 10 elections before 2024. There will be elections in Tripura which will tell where the Congress stands. Unfortunately for Rahul, in politics, there is no silver medal. Success defines and shapes everything. Mr Modi is politically authoritative but nobody is questioning because he is winning.

Will Bharat Jodo Yatra be an answer to BJP's accusation of Rahul Gandhi being a reluctant politician?

I think it is a very exaggerated narrative. The problem with Rahul Gandhi has been of substance. If you look at the Congress party's vote shares of 2014 and 2019 general elections, they have remained stagnant at about 18-19 percent. The BJP went up from 31 percent in 2014 to 38 percent in 2019. So with this campaign, Rahul Gandhi-led Congress should look at getting 4-5 percent more votes. Is the yatra going to achieve that? I have my doubts. I think the yatra catered to the liberals and the democrats -- essentially the non-NDA voters. The real challenge for Rahul is to convert NDA votes into UPA votes.

Another way of explaining this is that Rahul Gandhi's popularity ratings have never crossed 10 percent; they hover around 7-8 percent. On the other hand, Modi's popularity ratings have always been upwards of 60 percent. This means people who have not voted for Modi like Rahul Gandhi. Many of those who vote for the Congress don't like Rahul Gandhi.

Rahul Gandhi is one of the few leaders who are relatively younger, in his early fifties but his popularity ratings among the youth are very bad. How will the Congress address this ideologically issue? Whether religion should be mixed or not, muscular nationalism -- all these issues are very serious in nature. The Congress has been burying these under the carpet, the BJP has owned up. Whether it is the abrogation of Article 370 or the construction of Ram Temple, they have taken brave and sharp political stands. I don't say the Congress shouldn't copy the BJP but what is the alternative vision?

What should the Congress do next?

That is where there is a Catch-22 situation. Rahul has got this aura of quasi-spiritualism etc and all, whereas politics require very sharp and pragmatic responses. All these state elections I am talking about, the Congress needs to win. If Rahul Gandhi has become a strong and powerful leader within the Congress party, he should be able to resolve the political standoff in Rajasthan. He can say that Ashok Gehlot will continue; he can say that Sachin Pilot will lead the party in Rajasthan; he can also say that we will see after the next round (of elections) -- but they are not saying anything. This is an Ostrich-like approach. Rahul Gandhi might say that he is not the Congress President and he would be right. But Mr Kharge (Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge) is not taking any decision. He always looks at Rahul Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi. What I am saying is that indecisiveness is very crucial for the Congress. They have to get over this indecisiveness.

In Karnataka, where the Congress chances appear to be good, a DK Shivakumar vs Siddaramaiah narrative has emerged. Similarly, in Chhattisgarh, there is a tussle between Bhupesh Singh Baghel and TS Singh Deo. So he needs to take a clear and clinical political call. Kharge has been Congress president for over three months but he is yet to take any concrete decision. A CWG committee has to be constituted. Will it be a democratic body? There are no signs of it. Will there be elections? Shashi Tharoor, who fought and got 10 percent of the votes, will he be accommodated?

Why isn't Congress able to compete with BJP, AAP?

In democracies, people are known for their polarizing factors. You look at Putin, Barack Obama, Donald Trump, Macron --these are people who have taken ideologically sharp positions. Look at Arvind Kejriwal, Stalin, Mamata Banerjee -- they are very quick, they are very smart. They come across as very educated persons. Whereas in Rahul, that is lacking because the history of Congress suggests that a lack of ideology has been its strength. You could be pro-liberalization, you could be anti-liberalization, you could be a very devout Hindu, you could be anti-Hindu -- and still be part of the Congress party. Now Narendra Modi has changed a lot of these narratives. I am not suggesting to take Line A or Line B or Line C. In the Udaipur Chintan Shivir, half of the Congress was saying there should be religious outreach, implying that the Congress must identify with the majority community. But why those who believe in majoritarian policies will leave Narendra Modi and vote for Congress. You look at Britain, you look at France, there also, the pro-left parties have won. This was because they didn't compromise with their ideologies.