Expectations vs Reality: Did exit polls correctly predict Maharashtra, Haryana assembly election results?

It is safe to say that the performances of political parties in Maharashtra and Haryana have subverted expectations during the counting of votes today. After the elections to the states' Legislative Assembly on October 21, most exit polls conducted by various agencies had predicted an early Diwali for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), in the sense that they had forecasted the saffron party will return to power in both Maharashtra and Haryana with two-third majority in the state. As is now apparent after the fate of some of the assembly segments has already been sealed, Haryana is experiencing a close fight in the lead tally, with the opposition Congress catching up on its fair share, while the lead tally of the Congress and the NCP in Maharashtra have improved, thereby debunking most expectations and exit polls projections.

According to Party wise Trends & Results provided by the Election Commission of India (ECI) at 5:05 PM, here's where the parties currently stand:

Follow LIVE updates of the Assembly election results here.

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Election Results 2019 Live Updates: Haryana headed for hung assembly, JJP key to forming govt

So how did the exit polls really fare in predicting the results? What did they have in store for the political parties in Haryana before the day of the counting of votes?

In Maharashtra, where the BJP contested the state polls in an alliance - Mahayuti - with Shiv Sena and some other smaller allies, the saffron alliance was predicted to win close to 200 seats in the 288-member assembly, according to most exit polls.

 In Haryana, where the BJP is being challenged by the main opposition Congress and regional parties JJP and INLD, the exit polls had predicted that the ruling party will further improve its performance.

Maharashtra Exit Polls

The exit poll conducted by TV9 Marathi had predicted that the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance will get 197 seats in the assembly election. The Congress-NCP combine, on the other hand, will be restricted to 75 seats, it said. Other smaller parties and independents will be able to secure victory on 16 seats, the exit poll had said. 

The exit poll conducted by Jan Ki Baat had estimated 223 seats for the ruling alliance and a meagre 55 seats in the 288-member assembly for the Congress-NCP. It had not given any seat to other parties or independents. The exit poll conducted by Jan Ki Baat was broadcast by Republic TV. 

Maharashtra Assembly Election Results 2019 Live Updates

In another poll conducted by Times Now, the BJP-Shiv Sena was estimated to win 230 seats while Congress-NCP combine will not cross the 50-mark and is likely to stop at 48, it said. Other parties, however, will get 10 seats in the assembly election, the TV channel had said.

A poll conducted by News 18-Ipsos had estimated 243 seat seats for the ruling alliance while it predicted that Congress-NCP will get 41 seats. The pollster estimated 4 seats for other parties. 

The least number of seats had been given by Axis My India poll. The poll telecast on India Today had said the BJP-Shiv Sena will win 166-194 seats while the Congress-NCP will get 70-90 seats. Others are likely to get 22-32 seats in the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly, it said.

The poll conducted by CVoter had also given more than 200 seats to the alliance of the BJP and the Shiv Sena. The pollster had estimated that the ruling parties will together get 204 seats while the opposition Congress-NCP will be restricted to 69 seats. The polls, which were released by ABP News said other parties and independents will win 15 seats in the elections. 

The poll of polls of these 6 exit polls showed that BJP-Shiv Sena combine will easily cross 200-mark and is likely to win 212 seats. The Congress-NCP combine, on the other hand, will barely cross 60-mark, it had said. The average of all the 6 exit polls gave the opposition alliance 61 seats while other parties' candidates may win in 15 assembly constituencies, it was said. 

In the 2014 elections which the BJP and Shiv Sena had contested separately, the two parties won 122 and 63 seats (185 together), respectively. The Congress and the NCP - who fought the election together - won 42 and 41 seats (83 together), respectively. 

Haryana Exit Polls

The exit poll conducted by Cicero and telecast by TV9 had predicted that the BJP will get 69 seats in the assembly election. The Congress, on the other hand, will be restricted to 11 seats. Other smaller parties and independents will be able to secure victory on 10 seats, the exit poll said. 

The exit poll conducted by Jan Ki Baat had estimated 57 seats for the saffron party and 17 seats in the 90-member assembly for the Congress. It had given 16 seats to other parties or independents. The exit poll conducted by Jan Ki Baat was broadcast by Republic TV. 

Haryana Assembly Election Results 2019 Live Updates

In another poll conducted by Times Now, the BJP is estimated to win 71 seats while Congress will cross the two-digit mark and is likely to stop at 11. Other parties will get 8 seats in the assembly election, the TV channel said.

A poll conducted by News 18-Ipsos had estimated 75 seats for the ruling party while it predicts that the Congress will get 10​ seats. The pollster estimated 5 seats for other parties. 

The poll conducted by CVoter had given 72 seats to the BJP. The pollster had estimated that the Congress will not cross two digits and will only win 8 seats. The polls, which was released by ABP News said other parties and independents will win 10 seats in the elections. 

The poll of polls of these five exit polls showed that BJP will win 69 seats. The Congress, on the other hand, will barely cross the 2-digit mark and is likely to get 11 seats. The average of all the 6 exit polls gives other opposition parties 10 seats. 

In the last polls held in 2014, the BJP had won 47 seats and added one more seat after winning Jind bypoll earlier this year. The INLD had won 19 seats in the assembly while the Congress had 15 legislators.