dna special: J&K government report predicted Kashmir floods back in 2010

What most parts of Srinagar and the Kashmir Valley are witnessing today, during the worst floods in over a century to hit Jammu and Kashmir, was predicted back in 2010, by none other than the state government itself. 

The report prepared by the state's flood control department under then minister Taj Mohudin looks a can of Nostradamus predictions, where every word has been proved true. In the next five years, Srinagar city awaits a major deluge, the report says. It adds that the government has no mechanism to save human lives and property. The report predicts a discharge of 150,000 cusecs of water from River Jhelum hitting Srinagar, submerging most of it.

Those involved in the drafting of this prophecy say they were laughed at when it was presented to the state cabinet headed by Omar Abdullah. "We were jeered at and called jokers when we presented it. But thanks to the minister who stood by us and made the state cabinet forward it to the Planning Commission," said a former official, a known conservationist. 

Officials at the Planning Commission say they had forwarded the report to the ministry of finance and cabinet secretariat as it entailed an expenditure of Rs 2,200 crore. But, they say, a part of the plan that involved dredging of the river was approved. A state government official said the dredging project was begun a few years ago, but stopped when current minister for foods control Syam Lal replaced Mohudin. Nobody thereafter knows of the fate of this report.

The report says, "Most parts of the valley from Khannabal (Anantnag, South Kashmir) up to Khadinyar (Baramulla in North Kashmir) are likely to be hit by the looming flood. The Srinagar-Jammu highway may be washed away, leaving the Valley cut-off from the rest of the country." It adds that the road leading to the airport will be submerged. 

The report submitted to the central government had sought Rs 500 crore for the 2011-12 Budget to build a basic infrastructure.

After the 1892 floods, the then princely state, with the help of the British, had constructed an elaborate network of flood channels and several wetlands to divert water. These water channels are now extinct, with housing and shopping complexes dotting the wetlands. The last dredging of the Jhelum was conducted in 1950 between Sopore and Baramulla.

In 1959, when the Jhelum had flooded, the areas that are currently submerged were affected. But there was no loss of life, as people had been evacuated in advance. In the report, Mohudin is quoted saying, "The water has no place to go out in Srinagar city. The flood basin Bemina is now home to a 300-bed hospital and the office of the Srinagar Development Authority."