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COVID-19 to become endemic in India in 6 months, says top disease control expert

The expert stressed that a new variant alone cannot bring a third wave of infections.

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A top disease control expert in the country has stated that the COVID-19 pandemic is on the verge of turning endemic in India, pointing out that a third wave of infections won’t come alone only because of a new variant.

In an interview to a leading TV news channel, Sujeet Singh, Director of the National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), said, “This pandemic has defied most of our predictions but in the next six months, we will approach endemic status.”

Dr Singh explained that this would meaning that COVID-19 will become more manageable and take a lesser toll on the health infrastructure.

He added that the disease will be manageable if “mortality and morbidity is under control.”

He noted that the state of Kerala was also rising above the health crisis it found itself in some weeks ago.

The NCDC director asserts that vaccines were the biggest protection against COVID-19. He explained, “75 crore people have been vaccinated. If vaccine effectiveness is 70 per cent, then around 50 crore people in India have got immunity. A single dose gives 30-31% immunity. So the 30 crore people, who have received a single dose, are also immunised.”

However, Dr Singh warned against letting the guard down even after vaccination. People need to follow COVID-appropriate behaviour as breakthrough infections, where fully-vaccinated people catch COVID-19, will amount for 20-30 percent of cases.

Dr Singh further said that new variants can cause breakthrough infections, noting that scientists say immunity starts to reduce within 70 to 100 days of receiving the vaccine. He added that vaccination and more exposure to COVID-19 will reduce infections.

The NCDC head said that no new variants, including the C1.2 and Mu strains, have been found in India. He said, “Just a new variant cannot cause a third wave. The factor will be a mix of behaviour and antibodies. There is some worry because of the festival season.”

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