COVID-19 third wave could be worse than second, may bring 6 lakh cases daily, warns MHA panel report

The National Institute of Disaster Management (NIDM) has said in its latest report that pace of COVID-19 vaccination is very slow in India as compared to the US, warning that daily new case numbers could cross 6 lakh per day during third wave if pace is not accelerated.

It is to be noted that NIDM functions under the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA). “The emergence of a third wave could be significantly challenged by expanding vaccination but only around 7.6 per cent (10.4 crore) are fully vaccinated… According to a recent study done by professors and alumni from Pandit Deendayal Energy University (PDEU) in collaboration with Nirma University, the vaccination rate of India is currently 3.2 per cent which if does not improve, India can witness 6 lakh cases per day in the next (third) wave,” the NIDM report stated.

“But if the government’s proposal to increase this rate by five times (1 crore doses per day) comes to fruition, India will see only 25 per cent of the cases (seen in the second wave) during the third wave peak," it added.

The experts who were consulted by thr NIDM during the making of the report were A.K. Sengar, inspector general, National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) and Dr Amit Murari, commandant, NDRF, Dr Anurag Agarwal, director, Council of Scientific and Industrial Research-Institute of Genomics and Integrative Biology (CSIR-IGIB), Dr M.C. Mishra, former director, AIIMS, Dr Gagandeep Kang, professor, Christian Medical College, Vellore, Dr Jyoti Bindal, vice-chancellor, Sri Aurobindo University Indore, and Dr Debasis Dash, chief scientist at CSIR-IGIB.

The report noted that strengthening of medical infrastructure “requires immediate attention for when the country witnesses a third wave”.

“Public medical infrastructures are weak with severe shortages in qualified medical staff especially for children, then there is a huge gap between rural and urban India. The vaccine rollout (deemed as the only way out of this pandemic) has also been slow as compared to other countries (India’s 7.6 per cent vaccination rate vis-a-vis US’ 50 per cent). It is the absolute responsibility of the government to provide security and safety to its citizens even more so during this pandemic…” it added.

The report also raised concerns over the lower vaccination coverage among women in the country. “…The proportion of vaccine coverage… 856 doses to women for every 1,000 doses for men not matching India’s current sex ratio of 924 women per 1,000 men. The largest state in India, Uttar Pradesh, has 42 per cent vaccination of women, West Bengal has 44 per cent female coverage, Dadra and Nagar Haveli (predominantly rural UT) 30 per cent. Only a few states — Kerala and Andhra Pradesh — have more vaccine coverage for women than men,” it says. “Rural women are even more marginally placed vaccination-wise.”