Counting of votes for bypolls to 4 Lok Sabha seats: Possible takeaways

The counting of votes for 4 Lok Sabha and 10 assembly seats across 10 states, including politically crucial Kairana Parliamentary constituency in Uttar Pradesh, will begin at 8 am today. The polling in these 14 seats was held on May 28. This is one of the largest bypoll exercises in recent times in terms of numbers of seats up for polling. 

Besides Kairana, polling was being held for Palghar and Bhandara-Gondiya in Maharashtra and Nagaland Lok Sabha seats. The polling on Monday was marred with controversies with widespread failures of EVM-VVPAT machines. Repolling was conducted at 73 polling booths in Kairana Lok Sabha constituency and 49 booths in Bhandara-Gondia.
  
Possible takeaways: 

Kairana

The elections in four Lok Sabha seats are being seen with keen interest as their results could be a trendsetter for the 2019 general elections. The most crucial of the bypolls is in Kairana which will test the opposition unity formula in Western Uttar Pradesh. 

The constituency fell vacant after the death of BJP MP Hukum Singh, whose daughter Mriganka Singh is fighting Rashtriya Lok Dal’s (RLD) Tabassum Hasan, a candidate supported by the Congress, Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samaj Party, Left parties and the AAP.

After bypoll results in Gorakhpur and Phulpur earlier this year, the Kairana bye-election has become all the more important for the BJP. The outcome will show if the ruling BJP manages to break its losing streak this year or hands over a hat-trick to the opposition.

The opposition, on the other hand, hopes to repeat its success in Gorakhpur and Phulpur bye-elections by consolidating the anti-BJP vote in Kairana. 

With nearly 17 lakh voters, Kairana has a significant number of Muslims, Jats and Dalit voters. The bypoll would be a test case of whether the united opposition can consolidate their votes. 

Palghar

The by-election on this scheduled tribes (ST)-reserved seat in Maharashtra was necessitated after the death of BJP's Chintaman Wanga. The Shiv Sena, ruling BJP's estranged ally, staged a coup by fielding the late MP’s son Srinivas to capture the sympathy vote. 

The BJP poached former Congress minister Rajendra Gavit. 

With the Bahujan Vikas Aghadi (BVA) led by Vasai-Virar strongman Hitendra Thakur fielding ex-MP Baliram Jadhav, Kiran Raja Gahla of the CPI-M and former five-term MP Damu Shingada (Congress), the contest has become a multi-cornered fight. However, Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray and Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis have staked personal claim which has become a prestige battle for the two top leaders. 

On the last day of the campaigning, Thackeray released an audio clip, purportedly of Fadnavis asking BJP workers to use all possible means - 'saam, daam, dand, bhed' (negotiation, money, punishment and division) - to win the by-election.

Bhandara-Gondia

The Bhandara-Gondia Lok Sabha seat was vacated after BJP MP Nana Patole resigned from the party to join the Congress. However, Patole, a leader of the powerful OBC Kunbi community, is not contesting the bypoll as the Congress has handed over the seat to its ally NCP. 

The NCP has fielded former BJP MLA Madhukar Kukde, against the BJP’s Hemant Patle, who belongs to the Powar community and is also a former legislator.

NCP heavyweight Praful Patel, who was defeated by Patole in 2014, has a lot riding on the result. 

Nagaland

The by-election on this lone Nagaland Parliamentary seat was necessitated after the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) leader Neiphiu Rio resigned in February to become the chief minister of Nagaland.

The by-poll is a straight contest between ruling Peoples Democratic Alliance (PDA) candidate Tokheho Yepthomi and opposition Naga People's Front (NPF) nominee C Apok Jamir who is being supported by the Congress. The result could forge a united Congress-NPF front in 2019 polls. 

EVM controversy

Although a lot is on stake for the political parties in the bypolls to these 4 Lok Sabha seats, the election has also become a matter of prestige for the Election Commision following widespread complaints of faulty EVM-VVPAT machines and poll panel's less than satisfactory answer. 

Such was the level of complaints that the commission had to order re-pollling in 73 polling stations in Kairana and 49 polling stations in Bhandara-Gondia. More than the number of complaints, the excuse given by poll body for the failure of machines was what surprised many. The Election Commission blamed the failure of VVPAT machines on heatwave. 

Sources in the poll panel said inept handling of VVPAT machines by the ground staff, especially when the temperature is high, led to their heating, resulting in their malfunctioning.

Since many opposition parties have been raising the "EVEM tampering" issue, the malfunctioning on the day of bypoll gave them fresh ammunition. An unfavourable outcome would give these parties all more reasons to raise the EVM-tampering bogey.

(With PTI inputs)