Climate change can reduce farm income by up to 25%: Economic Survey

Climate change triggered extreme weather events and temperature rise can derail the Centre's push for doubling farmers' income across the country and reduce annual farm incomes up to 25 per cent in non-irrigated areas, the Economic Survey has said. The adverse impacts of climate change on agriculture will be largely felt when temperatures are higher than usual and rainfall is significantly lower. The resultant impacts on yield and farm incomes will be accentuated in rain-fed farms compared to irrigated ones.

The Survey said that unless climate change adaptation measures are adopted and irrigation policies are changed, farm incomes will be lower by around 12 per cent on average in the coming years. The Survey, though, does not say that government has to take a lead in adaption measures but puts the onus on farmers.

To analyse the impact of climate change on agriculture, the Survey relied on international studies and long-term rainfall and temperature data of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and data from ICRISAT. The data showed that average increase in temperature between recent decade and 1970s is about 0.45 degrees and 0.63 degrees in Kharif and Rabi crops respectively. In terms of long-term trends, dry days with rainfall lesser than 0.1 mm rainfall have increased and so have days with more than 80 mm rainfall.

The most adverse impact is being felt in non-irrigated areas. Hotter days are leading to 10 per cent lower Kharif yields in non-irrigated areas and drier days which are leading to drought like situations are reducing Kharif yields by 18 per cent. Temperature variations, though, are affecting yields only when they are extreme. When it comes to farm incomes, extreme temperature shocks reduce them by 4.3 percent and 4.1 percent during kharif and rabi respectively, whereas extreme rainfall shocks reduce incomes by 13.7 percent and 5.5 percent, the Survey said.

Even as it has attempted to gauge the impact of temperature and rainfall shifts on crops, it has not touched upon freak weather events such as hailstorms, untimely rain spells and minor temperature changes that affect the cultivation of crops. In the past five years, states such as Maharashtra have seen much damage due to hailstorms and untimely rainfall. The Survey also does not take into account impacts of cyclone storms and sea ingress on crops across coastal states.

Experts slammed the Survey analysis for omitting the severe impacts of climate change and market policies on farmers in states that are largely covered under irrigation. "The Survey has not recognized the full dangers of climate change and our planners do not even go into fields. In a state like Punjab which has assured irrigation, incomes have dipped and there have been 16,000 suicides. They are diverting from the real issues," said Devinder Sharma, a farm policy expert.