On the eve of final phase polls for 72 seats, Chhattisgarh seems poised for a very interesting contest that can go either way. Both the incumbent BJP and Congress in the opposition have interpreted the high polling percentage in the first phase polls for 18 seats in their favour.

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Chief minister Raman Singh and others in BJP claimed it was due to pro-incumbency wave and status quo, while state Congress chief Charan Das Mahant and others said it was due to high anti-incumbency factor and people wanting change.

For the upcoming contest for 72 seats, leaders of both the parties concede in private that nothing can be said for sure. There are no clear favourites this time and most of the seats are up for a tough contest due to anti-incumbency on local issues, rebels and triangular contest on several seats.

Getting whiff of a tough contest ahead after Bastar polls and a tapering Raman effect, the BJP changed its strategy, and suddenly Raipur and other key constituencies got packed with huge cut outs of BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi. Before Bastar polls, it was Raman Singh all the way.

Modi responded with alacrity, taking responsibility of launching a full throttle attack on the UPA government by undertaking whirlwind tours of constituencies.

A relentless Modi, addressing up to five rallies in day, launched a blitzkrieg against the Congress and raised the pitch by roping in Congress president Sonia Gandhi, vice-president Rahul Gandhi and prime minister Manmohan Singh.

Trying to play crucial Jogi factor, first chief minister of Chhattisgarh who is hated in urban areas and loved in rural-tribal belt, Modi dared the Congress to name their candidate for the top post. 

In the later phase, Modi’s popularity picked up in urban areas but failed to create much ripples in the rural areas.

However, a senior BJP minister in Chhattisgarh government confided that before Modi there was a sense of anxiety in state leadership but is much assured now. “We are confident Modi factor will pull crucial votes for us. We are assured of 48-50 seats now,” the minister said.

Putting its house in order just before the announcement of elections, the Congress looks confident of improving its tally and even forming the government in Chhattisgarh.

Much of its confidence comes from the high polling percentage that it attributes to anti-incumbency for change due to high corruption, lack of development and bad law and order.

Congress that looked beleaguered after losing much of its state leadership, including state Congress president Nandkumar Patel, in the Jiramghati massacre and later even failed to en-cash it roped in Jogi just enough to keep the urban voters assured of and rural-tribal happy.

To counter Modi, it stepped up attack against the state government by organising several rounds of public rallies of Sonia Gandhi and Rahul. Jogi and other leaders were kept to launch scathing counter attacks on Modi and Raman Singh. 

While nothing can be said with surety as to who will form the government in Chhattisgarh, the electorates are certain to prove opinion pollsters wrong that gave the BJP a comfortable win with 60 to 70 seats.