Bihar Exit Poll 2025: Who will win 5 key Assembly seats, including Mahua? Exit polls predict...

The Bihar assembly election 2025 was held in two phases - November 6 and 11 - with the counting scheduled for November 14.  Both days saw record turnout with the second phase of polling witnessing 67.14 percent on Tuesday. Almost all the pollsters have predicted a sweeping win for NDA with BJP being the largest party in the state during the election results.\

What have pollsters predict for these 5 key assembly seats? 

Mahua 

RJD supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav’ elder son Tej Pratap is contesting from Mahua, in Vaishali district. According to pollsters, he is trailing behind as Mahagathbandhan’s is moving ahead on the assembly seat which have placed RJD’s sitting MLA Mukesh Roushan.  

Though RJD’s stronghold, the Mahua assembly seat will be a tough competition for Tej Pratap as he formed a new party, anshakti Janata Dal, which is up against RJD’s sitting MLA, Mukesh Kumar Raushan who won the constituency with 62,747 votes with a margin of 62,747 votes in the 2020 assembly election. Lok Janshakti Party's candidate Sanjay Singh may make the situation more difficult for Tej Pratap. 

In 2025, Tej Pratap won the seat with a margin of 66,927 votes. 

Raghopur 

According to People’s Insight, RJD is leading on Tejashwi Yadav’s Raghopur assembly seat with 152 votes and 58.02 percent vote share. Meanwhile, BJP could gain only 90 votes and 34.35 percent vote share. BJP has fielded Satish Kumar against the RJD candidate.  

Alinagar 

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has fielded folk-singer Maithili Thakur against Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)'s Vinod Mishra from Alinagar. According to the exit poll, Maithili Thakur is losing the election against RJD's Vinod Mishra.  

Mokama 

Mokama is one of the key assembly seats with key contestants being NDA's Anant Singh, MGB's Veena Devi (the wife of don-turned politician Surajbhaan Singh), and Jan Suraaj's Piyush Priyadarshi. According to the exit polls, JDU has a clear edge with 378 votes and 52.72% vote share (as per People's Insights data). Anant Singh was arrested in connection with the killing of Jan Suraaj supporter Dular Chand Yadav.   

Tarapur  

Exit polls have predicted a massive vote share for BJP in this key assembly seat. With 104 votes and 56.52 percent vote share, BJP is leading on this seat with its candidate and Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Chaudhary. Other candidates are RJD’s Arun Kumar who is Chaudhary’s main contender, Jan Suraaj Party’s Santosh Kumar Singh and Janshakti Janta Dal’s Sukhdev Yadav.