Avoiding further drift vital for India, China

As a geologist by training, Chinese premier Wen Jiabao has a keen understanding of the science of plate tectonics, the phenomenon that brings continental land masses together - or causes them to drift apart.

Yet, although Wen’s three-day visit to India, which begins on Wednesday, is unlikely to see any dramatic shift in the tectonic plates that support Sino-Indian relations, the effort by both countries’ leaders will be to ensure that the two rising Asian economies, which account for a third of humanity, don’t drift apart.

In that endeavour, Wen and prime minister Manmohan Singh, who share a mutual respect that is evident in their comfortable body language whenever they meet, will look to focus on areas of bilateral congruence and de-emphasise the many areas of discord.

“Leaders on both sides tend to believe that it’s better not to touch sensitive issues,” notes Jonathan Holslag, research fellow at the Brussels Institute of Contemporary China Studies, and author of China and India: Prospects for Peace. “They also appear to assume that great power rivalry will become obsolete as trade and people-to-people exchanges expand.”

In Holslag’s estimation, however, that objective may be difficult to achieve.

“Both sides will have to digest another failed round of border negotiations, proliferating trade disputes and tensions over Kashmir.” And although that may have been the normal state of things between China and India for two decades, “their leaders should understand that muddling through like this undermines the prospects for lasting peace”.

The focus of Wen’s trip will be to build on the trade relationship, which has grown dramatically in scale in less than a decade.

And although even the business of commerce isn’t without frictions, “improved trade relations could have a positive fallout on the overall relationship,” notes prof Jean-Pierre Cabestan, head of the department of government and international studies at the Hong Kong Baptist University. “Even if all the issues aren’t resolved, the atmospherics will certainly be better.”

On Wednesday, apart from signing a slew of trade agreements, premier Wen will give away awards to 10 Indians from various streams, who have contributed to better Sino-Indian relations. All of Thursday will be given over to discussions between the two sides’ political leadership and foreign service mandarins, during which multilateral and bilateral issues will come up.

“Cooperation on multilateral issues will be easily achieved,” reasons Srikanth Kondapalli, professor of China Studies at the Jawaharlal Nehru University.

Bilateral issues — covering everything from the border dispute; China’s issuance (until recently) of stapled visas to Kashmiris; its construction of dams in the upper reaches of the Brahmaputra; and its strategic moves in the Indian subcontinent — will prove rather more contentious.

Even on trade issues, things are far from smooth. China is pushing for a bilateral free trade agreement, but India is disinclined, wary of the hidden subsidies that Chinese state-owned companies enjoy and China’s undervalued currency, which would skew bilateral trade even further in China’s favour - and perhaps lead to mounting unemployment in northern India’s industrial belt. India prefers a pan-Asian regional trade agreement, but that may prove unrealisable. 

Economic interests “have been an important driver of pragmatism” in Sino-Indian relations, notes Holslag, “but this cannot be taken for granted”. Should India manage to advance its industrialisation, it will become a formidable competitor to China in an international market that suffers from overcapacity and uncertain demand. Both countries, he reasons, will have to use “a lot of political lobbying” to gain access to both export markets and raw materials.

In that context, efforts at reinforcing “confidence-building measures” and going through the motions of dialogue amount to “curing the symptoms” - and perhaps even “distracts leaders from addressing the deep sources of distrust”, says Holslag.

Given these burdens of history, Singh and Wen may not be able to break much new ground during the premier’s visit. Perhaps the avoidance of further drift is the best that the two sides can hope for under the circumstances.