Assembly Elections 2018: Bhopal Madhya is MP's new bellwether seat

A combination of narrow labyrinthine alleys and wide avenues, the Bhopal Madhya constituency of Madhya Pradesh makes for an uneven ride to power in the state.

Carved out of Bhopal (North) and Bhopal (South) assembly segments in 2008, the demographically diverse area is home to a large Muslim population which some say makes it a study in electoral contrast.

The contrast, however, fails to hold on closer inspection, as the sheer black and white of numerical data splits into vibrant patterns of culture, lifestyle, habit and behaviour.

A walk through the old city, parts of which form one half of this constituency, brings one face-to-face with shopkeepers, marginal traders and craftsmen who established themselves in business during the economic boom of the 90s.

Many of the people in the area now count on small family farms, on the outskirts of the city, to augment their incomes which, they claim, have registered a steep fall during the last few years.

During the first two elections in the constituency in 2008 and 2013, BJP candidates – Dhruv Narayan Singh and Surendra Nath Singh 'Mamma' – had surprised many by polling substantial chunks of predominantly Muslim vote.

The gains made by these candidates in the old city were further consolidated by voters in the upwardly mobile areas of the new city which form the remainder of the constituency.

Voting with the swing in both these elections, educated working class residents in the new city while ensuring victory for the BJP candidates, unwittingly gave rise to suggestions of a religious polarisation of the vote in the area.

Not surprisingly, BJP formed successive governments in the state in 2008 and 2013.

The assembly poll saw the Congress invest confidence in former city youth Congress chief Arif Masood for a second time despite opposition from within the party ranks.

Rising to the occasion, Masood not only pulled off a spectacular victory on the seat but also stunned his BJP opponent by the sheer size of the mandate in his favour.

Masood's comprehensive victory, the biggest in the constituency ever, was complimented by another surprise Congress win in the neighbouring Bhopal (South-West) seat where party old-timer PC Sharma beat incumbent state minister Uma Shankar Gupta by a margin of over 6500 votes.

Continuing to vote with the swing in three consecutive elections, voters in Bhopal Madhya have provided adequate proof of their ability to rise above religious-polarisation and emerged as a seat to watch for those attempting to decode the electoral mood in the state.