Informed sources said if Jogi has to emerge kingmaker, he will have to prove his mettle, winning as many seats he and BSP can in the crucial second phase.
If the above 70% voter turnout in Naxal-dominated Bastar and Rajnandgaon regions of Chhattisgarh, where 18 constituencies went to polls in phase one, is anything to go by, the ruling BJP has reasons to be worried. Of these 18 seats, Congress had won 12 and BJP six in the last assembly elections.
But then, there was no BSP-Ajit Jogi alliance around in 2013 and yet the difference was less than one per cent between the traditional political rivals of this small state. With less than a week to go for phase-two polls on November 20, the elections are turning out to be a real acid test for the third front. Will it be a force to reckon with or will it end with a whimper? The remaining 72 seats where elections are to be held hold the answer.
While Jogi, a bureaucrat-turned-politician, is known for his deeper understanding of society and politics of this state where he was the first chief minister, his two-year-old party Janata Congress Chhattisgarh (JCC) has not made a great impact in the tribal belt of Bastar and adjoining areas. In some areas, the JCC did not even have candidates and they have fielded nominees from CPI with whom Jogi's party has an understanding.
Political analysts point out that it's the Janjgir-Champa area under Bilaspur division where the scheduled castes hold the sway and therefore the JCC-BSP alliance is more relevant here. Many years ago, BSP founder Kanshi Ram had fought a Lok Sabha election from here, though unsuccessfully. It was part of Madhya Pradesh then.
In Bilaspur division, there are 29 seats spread over five districts (Mungeli, Bilaspur, Janjgir, Korba and Raigad) which hold the key to power, as far as the new grouping is concerned.
Informed sources said if Jogi has to emerge kingmaker, he will have to prove his mettle, winning as many seats he and BSP can in the crucial second phase. Ajit Jogi (Marwahi), his wife Renu (Kota) and daughter-in-law Richa (Akltara) will be testing their electoral fortunes on November 20 and try to make a dent into BJP and Congress both. Richa Jogi, however, is riding the elephant and contesting from a BSP ticket as part of a strategy.
Constituencies like Pamgad, Akaltara, Chandrapur and Jejepur may help BSP considering the concentration of SC population. A BSP sympathiser said the voters who are disenchanted with BJP will vote for the third force.
BSP supremo Mayawati has held only two major rallies in the state and both have been in Bilaspur region dominated by scheduled castes. "My party has been fighting for the rights of the downtrodden, same as BSP and I hope our combined strength will win enough seats to be able to grab power," Jogi said in an interview recently, adding there is an anger and dislike for Raman Singh in many pockets across the state. Though Jogi is positioning and projecting himself as the next CM, the ground reality is if the "third force" manages to win more than 10 seats he could be a kingmaker, opine political observers.
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