Assam Elections 2016: Exit polls suggest BJP's Sarbananda Sonowal to be next CM

Assam was always a high-stake election for the BJP. In its goal to achieve a Congress-mukt-Bharat, Assam was another frontier where the 15-year-long reign of Tarun Gogoi  was challenged by BJP, buoyant by their admirable performance in the Lok Sabha election.  

Taking lessons from the Delhi and Bihar drubbing, BJP made a course correction by projecting a CM in Sarbananda Sonowal and also showed political prudence in tying up with AGP, which though a fading force retains a certain amount of political capital.  

And if exit polls are to be believed, Amit Shah may have got this round absolutely right. Almost every exit poll sans one predicts a clear sweep for BJP and virtual decimation for the Tarun Gogoi-led Congress. In the final analysis, not aligning with AIUDF may have cost Congress dear. 

Many in the political circle believe Assam is not a open-and-shut case and there may be chance for considerable political manoeuvring if the vote shares are a bit closer than what is predicted. A lot of political pundits believe there may have been a concentration of minority votes in favour of AIUDF to stop BJP from coming to power.

If such a phenomenon had indeed happened, Assam may throw up a classic hung assembly and Badaruddin Ajmal's AIUDF can become the kingmaker as  indicated by the C-Voter survey. But for now, Sarbananda Sonowal will have a bright smile at his face hoping that the exit polls come true and BJP is able to win its first-ever mandate in Assam.  

Here's how the exit polls stack up: