Why early arrival of monsoon in Kerala does not mean it will arrive on time across India

Dr Sathi Devi, a senior scientist and head of National Weather Forecasting Centre in an exclusive talk with Zee Business’ Suman Agrawal said that the IMD would declare the advent of the southwest monsoon winds only after measuring parameters following defined guidelines.

She added that the conditions were favourable and that the rains had advanced to some parts of Tamil Nadu. In the next 48 hours, it is expected to advance to parts of coastal Karnataka and its interior regions.

 She added that the rains usually lash Kerala in the beginning of June and cover all of India by mid-July.

Excerpts

The Southwest Monsoon has struck Kerala today. Can you tell us that by when it will be able to cover rest parts of the country?

The onset of monsoon in Kerala was declared after seeing the favourable conditions, but we can't provide any forecast for the other regions of the country. Earlier in our forecast, we said that monsoon will reach Kerala on May 29, by keeping a margin of +/- four days, which means that it has reached three days prior to the regular date i.e. June 1.

Can you give a tentative time by when monsoon will be able to reach rest of India?

If you look forward to knowing when it will reach other parts of India than I can just say that it generally covers the country in one and a half months after striking in Kerala. However, an early monsoon in Kerala does not mean that it will hit other parts of the country on time. Factors such as wind strength also play a factor. 

Earlier this month, during a conference, the IMD said that India will witness a good monsoon, adding that certain regions may receive heavier rain compared to others. What are these regions?

We said that India will witness normal rains this year. We don’t provide the forecast for a specific region or small areas. We issue the second update of the monsoon that will talk about its condition across India.

By when will the second update of monsoon be made?

The second update will be released in the second or third week of June. Along with that, we will be providing the rainfall forecast for four homogeneous regions of the country.

The recent thunderstorms have caused massive loss. Are there more warnings that people should be wary of?

Thunderstorms are caused due to the presence of moisture and heating conditions. We have issued warnings of the thunderstorm in Delhi, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Chandigarh but these storms will not be severe like the thunderstorms that struck India earlier in the month.