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| Edited By: Yogesh Pawar |Source: DNA |Updated: Feb 24, 2019, 05:20 AM IST
Executive VP for Global Centers and Global Development at Columbia University Prof Safwan M Masri was in Mumbai for a talk on Shifting Dynamics in the Middle East. Yogesh Pawar spoke to him about the Arab Spring, the Saudis and their 'reforms,' the Khashoggi murder and more....
Concerns over power dynamics in the Middle East are largely oil-driven. The concept of the world war as understood in the 20th century is history. Today we live in a state of continuous conflict with flash points, some of which are in the Middle East too. But to say that this might lead to an all out conventional war is a bit of a stretch.
During the Operation Desert Storm (1991) when US president George W Bush led 35 nations against Iraq a Western template for democracy was spoken of. Simultaneous anti-government protests, uprisings, and armed rebellions across the Middle East in 2010 which we know as Arab Spring were however organic and home-grown. Apart from Tunisia these movements made a big mistake. They forgot getting rid of dictatorial/oppressive regimes is easier compared to planning for what comes after. Failure to recognise this dealt a crippling blow to the Arab Spring as no pluralistic and egalitarian democracies were created.
While this shift is relatively recent, maps in this region have been changing more often than most of the world. Coups, counter-coups and one-upmanship over suzerainity in this region are long-standing problems created by the British and French who arbitrarily carved out nation-sstates.
MBS desperately needs something positive about his regime to make headlines. He's chosen Pakistan, India and China since he knows no Western country will accord him a state welcome while the macabre Jamal Khashoggi murder is still fresh in people's minds.
The Jamal Khashoggi incident is alive only because the deceased was a columnist of The Washington Post and a resident of Virginia. Remember he comes from a well-connected family (nephew of Saudi Arabian arms dealer Adnan Khashoggi and first cousin of the late Princess of Wales' Diana's partner Dodi Fayed) Pushing this one over isn't going to be easy. Also Turkey keeps the case simmering as it gives them a powerful bargaining chip at a time when their currency has been devalued and both the economy and the country are staring at tough times.
Because Saudi Arabia exists only to serve interests of the ruling family for who there is no difference between public and private funds.
On the contrary I feel Saudi Arabia will undermine India's equation with Iran. MBS' overtures to India are meant to do exactly that.
I don't think the Saudi rulers care too much about religion as much as the eco-politics and geopolitics of any move.
You mean cosmetic ones like letting women drive and opening movie theatres? That hardly counts. Do you know Saudi women still have to be accompanied by a male 'guardian' (father, brother, husband, son, etc) or have their authorisation for something even as basic as boarding a flight? How can one disregard the imprisonment of critics and human and women's rights activists, thousands of civilian deaths in Yemen and a rapid rise of the number of executions (mostly beheadings) since MBS' ascent to power?
Tunisia has been able to stay aloof from the trouble in the Arabian world because it is a democracy. It helps it is located far from all the hot spots but it also helps that Tunisia's rulers are progressive. Let's not forget, despite being the centre of major slave trade from Africa to Europe Tunisia abolished slavery a whole 19 years before the US and two years before France in 1846. It established a covenant of safety to protect all non-Muslim minorities in 1857. Tunisian women have no compulsion on the niquab, access to abortion and polygamy has been made illegal. Two years ago domestic violence against women was outlawed and the law allowing rapists to escape punishment by marrying the victim was abolished.
Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Manama and Cairo hate Tunisia because in it they see a threat. They fear their citizens might revolt demanding similar freedoms, democracy and gender equality.
This rivalry goes back in history when Saudi Arabia played big brother to many local regimes in the region. The Qataris now want to decide independently in their own interest and are vocal about their divergent views from the Saudis. Both regimes accuse the other of supporting dissidents in each other's countries. Given its multiple layers it is not a dispute going away anywhere in a hurry.
I can only agree. Also the US' duplicity in going aggressive on human rights elsewhere but looking the other way when its own close ally Saudi Arabia is involved smacks of hypocrisy. But one is not surprised given that the US has not only supported but actively indulged in human rights violations when it suited them. President Obama was the only one who called out Saudi Arabia's human rights excesses. But with President Trump there are so many connections over money and otherwise that Trump was bending over backwards to show MBS was not involved in the Khashoggi murder.
