Karnataka govt formation: How Congress managed to beat BJP and the lessons from it

Congress lost the battle and won the war. That is in nutshell the synopsis of nataka in Karnataka where Congress denied BJP in their tracks to form government in alliance with JD(S). 

Congress did lot of positive things during the campaign starting with giving a relatively-free hand to Siddaramaiah to Rahul Gandhi's much-better messaging.

Still plagued by inherent anti-incumbency, Lingayat gambit going wrong and simply getting overpowered by PM Modi's charisma, Congress ended up second with 78 seats despite getting more votes than BJP. 

The Congress of the yore, with its sense of entitlement would have shirked from extending support to a regional party to become CM, who incidentally won less than half the seats. But finally, the very real possibility of just being existing in two-and-a-half states probably woke Congress up from their stupor. As soon as it was clear that BJP would be few seats less than the magic figure, UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi sprang into action.

Soon, the deal with JD(S) was cracked even before Amit Shah and Co. could react. Offering Kumaraswamy the CM post was a masterstroke because it was too good an offer to be let go by JD(S). And in no way could BJP top that offer. 

However, BJP had more cards up their sleeves. A pliant Governor meant that they had the first bite of the cherry getting 15 days to prove their majority.

Congress showed its presence of mind here too. The midnight sojourn by party's legal eagles to the Supreme Court showed their intent, which gave a positive message to their MLAs in Karnataka. The party managed to ensure that SC asks Yeddyurappa government to take floor test within two days, thus greatly negating the chances of rampant horse-trading. Abhishek Manu Singhvi's arguments found much greater currency with the SC judges than that of Mukul Rohatgi and AG Venugopal.

However, the Governor again pulled a rabbit out of hat by appointing KG Bopaiah as pro-tem speaker by ignoring well-tested convention of seniority. This was promptly challenged by Congress who managed a big concession from SC that the entire floor test would be telecasted. This virtually negated any chances of skulduggery in the Assembly which many feared, given the pro-tem speaker’s history.

However, the game was still not over. BJP tried its best to enforce defection in the opposition ranks. Some MLAs got missing, some stopped communicating. But the likes of DK Shivakumar who had herded the MLAs in resorts ensured that the MLAs don't get swayed. Even those who were 'missing' came back before the floor test. Another masterstroke was publication of tapes implicating the big-guns of Karnataka BJP - the likes of Yeddyurappa, Sriramulu and Janardhan Reddy. While BJP has rubbished it as work of mimicry artists, in public perception it would go down as a desperate move by a party which is looking to get power by hooks or by crooks. So rather than BJP getting sympathy for missing out on forming the government despite being the single largest party, they have ended up ons the wrong side of the game. 

Congress for a long time was living in denial about its position in Indian politics. It felt that BJP's wins are just a passing phase and they are the natural party of governance. But finally, Rahul Gandhi may be finally getting rid of that grand delusion. Congress is just the biggest block of the opposition, but hardly effective individually. It needs the regional parties to mount a challenge against might of Modi-Shah. For that, they may have to significantly scale down their aspirations in states like Bihar, UP, Bengal, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu etc to get opposition unity. Can they do it may determine the fate of 2019. 

Intra-party, Rahul needs to go beyond people who are his trusted aides to get the best consultations, which would get his job done. Getting Singhvi to take the lead in SC, who wasn't aligned to the party in the CJI impeachment case showed Rahul Gandhi's political maturity. The Congress President has made a series of clever choices in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh which is the next stop of India's non-stop election caravan. Rahul Gandhi may still be a shadow of PM Modi in terms of popularity, but at least they have learnt to play the 'game'.

They are no longer Jon Snows while countering Chanakya politics.