For every confirmed COVID case in India, 30 infections went unreported, says health expert

At least 30 COVID cases in India went undetected or were missed for every single infection that has been reported in India, an analysis by independent epidemiologist Dr Chandrakant Lahariya for the ICMR's fourth serosurvey said. 

Dr Lahariya in his analysis showed that for every reported COVID case in India, how many cases were missed. 

Talking to news agency PTI, he said, "Many cases are asymptomatic so they are likely to go unreported. If contact tracing is done well, even asymptomatic cases can also be reported. This has been reflected in the fact that a few states have done better than others as they can report on more cases as compared to other states."

However, the public health expert said that it does not mean that this was deliberate but it simply reflects the performance of the disease surveillance system and the response to the pandemic in tackling the cases. 

The fourth round of the national serosurvey was conducted across 70 districts of India, the findings of which were released by the Union Ministry of Health on Wednesday.

Dr Lahariya's analysis said that there were 6 to 98 unreported or undetected COVID cases for every laboratory-confirmed coronavirus infection in India. Uttar Pradesh was the state with the highest number of unreported or undetected cases, according to the analysis. At least 98 cases were missed or remained undetected for every case reported in the state. 

This was lowest in Kerala, as the analysis said that for every reported case in the state, there were 6 unreported or undetected COVID infections.

The under-counting factor for India was 30, the analysis said, PTI reported. 

Followed by Uttar Pradesh, the under-counting factor was 83 for Madhya Pradesh. While, it was 63 in Jharkhand, 62 for Rajasthan, 61 for Gujarat, and 59 for Bihar. 

A state and district-specific survey will provide a more accurate picture, the public health expert said, adding that the government should plan such a survey urgently, reported PTI.