US-Iran Conflict: How military action may backfire on Donald Trump?

After the Pentagon pulled out some of its personnel deployed at its Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar on Wednesday evening, observers believe a US attack on Iran is imminent. Earlier in June last year, before Washington bombed nuclear facilities in Iran, it had withdrawn its topmost officials from ‌the largest US base ‍in West Asia with over 10,000 troops. However, analysts believe it may prove counterproductive to the US interest as well as to President Donald Trump personally. It may cause damage to the US Middle-East policy, its security preparations to a limited extent, its economy, image, and priority. Donald Trump will have to weigh carefully before he takes the extreme step. 

US military strike on Iran?

Though the Islamic Republic, with its archaic and rusted war machinery, is not a match to the 1.3 million-strong US military equipped with the latest and most lethal weapons, it can deliver a severe blow to the Pentagon. With its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, it can attack the US bases in the Middle East and cause at least partial damage. Iran could attack the US bases and personnel across the Middle East. While Tehran and its proxies can launch missile strikes and unleash terror operatives, it could suck the US into open-ended engagement, far beyond initial targets. As history has taught the US lessons in Iraq and Afghanistan, escalation can prove costly and unpredictable, especially against an opponent that may avoid direct confrontation while exploiting asymmetric tactics.

(Protests across Islamic regime spread across Iran.)

Iran can easily block the Strait of Hormuz and choke the flow of crude oil, putting the crude prices on fire. It can hit the world economy, and the US may be at the receiving end at a time when its manufacturing sector is in a doldrum and unemployment is going up, though the inflation is under control. With the increased crude oil bill and heightened input cost, the US may suffer more than Iran, which has not much to lose. 

Iran retaliation US

Any conflict with Tehran is likely to throw the US policy and strategy in the Middle East out of gear. Led by Riyadh, the Arab countries have urged the US to hold its plan to take military action against the Shiite nation. According to the 'Wall Street Journal', Saudi Arabia, Oman and Qatar have reportedly told the White House that an attempt at regime change in Iran would severely affect the oil markets and even hit the US economy. Upping the ante, Iran has warned regional countries, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Turkey, that the US air bases in their countries may be targeted if the US attacks the regime. An official told Reuters, "Tehran has told regional countries, from Saudi Arabia and UAE to Turkey, that U.S. bases in those countries will be attacked if the US targets Iran... asking these countries to prevent Washington from attacking Iran."

At a time when Donald Trump is trying to wean away Russia from China to focus on the Asian giant and potential challenger in the world geopolitics, any escalation in the Middle-East will serve as a detraction. Trump has already been accused of pushing an emerging ally like India to the opposite camp by punishing it with a 50% tariff and other trade and immigration restrictions, which have already caused New Delhi billions of dollars and loss of employment in a few months. Detractors apprehend that the US policy of containing Beijing in the South China Sea and the Pacific Region may be compromised. It will not be a good foreign policy to get distracted from its path by punishing the regime that is already gasping for breath under economic sanctions. 

Will Donald Trump's Iran attack boomerang?

After an attack, Iranian hardliners could seize on the opportunity to justify rapid nuclear development, as history has shown that countries perceiving an existential threat often double down on deterrence. Iranian liberals like President Mahmoud Pezeshkian may be pushed to the sidelines of politics and hardliners may tighten their grip, with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei becoming more powerful and resolute. It may also push the general masses, particularly those living in rural areas with more religiosity and spiritualism, to rally behind the cleric regime that Trump wants to overthrow. 

Any military attack on Iran, at least for now, may prove suicidal for Trump's political future. A recent survey has shown that about 70% of the US voters oppose military involvement in Iran. A majority of those who participated said the president should seek congressional approval for any such action. His approval has slipped to about 40% with a 54% disapproval. It suggests clearly that military escalation could deepen domestic political backlash. An unpopular foreign war is against the policy of 'America First,' and it could anger Trump's followers at Make America Great Again (MAGA), who want him to focus on the domestic front and avoid foreign entanglements. 

Iran protests 2026

Analysts believe an attack on Iran is most likely to be a counterproductive move, as it could get the US trapped in unwanted skirmishes and escalation rather than achieving a quick, decisive victory. It could also detract it from planned policy achievement, alienate key constituencies at home and abroad, and worsen economic conditions. It may undermine strategic priorities and push the country to unknown direction and unfathomable losses. Donald Trump may also suffer personally on political grounds and alienate his MAGA constituency.